Please jump over to the original simulation for an introduction for how the simulation works.

With the intro out of the way, let’s look at the latest simulation results:

Team2nd RoundSweet 16Elite 8Final FourFinalsChampsChamp Odds
Villanova93%70%51%33%20%13%674
Kansas96%72%45%28%18%10%932
Iowa90%70%44%26%15%9%1059
West Virginia91%65%45%25%15%8%1164
Oklahoma94%65%44%25%13%8%1216
North Carolina88%66%41%25%13%7%1379
Louisville84%57%30%17%10%5%1920
Xavier83%51%30%15%8%4%2281
Purdue79%54%30%18%9%4%2327
Maryland85%55%33%18%8%4%2419
Virginia86%54%29%16%8%4%2464
Texas A&M77%55%31%16%8%4%2574
Michigan St.83%52%29%14%7%3%2807
Arizona81%56%26%11%5%2%4015
Miami FL78%51%23%11%5%2%4267
Saint Mary's72%28%16%7%3%1%7043
Iowa St.73%41%16%8%3%1%8097
Duke66%36%14%6%3%1%8829
Baylor63%29%13%6%2%1%10104
Valparaiso53%24%12%5%2%1%10317
USC67%28%12%5%2%1%12246
Indiana59%26%13%5%2%1%12721
Oregon55%24%11%4%2%1%14393
Wichita St.47%21%10%4%2%1%15052
Florida54%19%10%4%1%1%16849
Notre Dame55%17%8%3%1%1%18419
Pittsburgh60%25%11%5%2%0%22122
Michigan55%16%6%2%1%0%31150
VCU45%18%7%2%1%0%31150
California60%20%8%3%1%0%35614
Kentucky58%25%9%3%1%0%35614
Butler46%14%7%2%1%0%43378
Connecticut45%12%6%2%1%0%43378
Monmouth41%15%6%2%1%0%49900
South Carolina53%15%5%2%1%0%58724
Providence52%18%7%2%1%0%66567
Cincinnati25%10%3%1%0%0%71329
Dayton52%21%7%2%1%0%76823
Gonzaga45%12%4%2%1%0%76823
Texas Tech48%17%6%2%1%0%99900
Colorado47%12%4%1%0%0%111011
Texas48%17%5%2%0%0%124900
Arkansas Little Rock42%15%4%1%0%0%142757
Stony Brook34%13%3%1%0%0%142757
Seton Hall24%8%3%1%0%0%142757
George Washington40%10%3%1%0%0%333233
Hawaii33%10%2%1%0%0%333233
Utah28%6%2%0%0%0%499900
Memphis23%10%3%1%0%0%499900
William & Mary22%9%2%0%0%0%499900
Yale21%8%2%1%0%0%499900
Oregon St.16%5%1%0%0%0%499900
San Diego St.27%9%2%0%0%0%999900
Belmont17%5%1%0%0%0%999900
Chattanooga16%5%1%0%0%0%999900
UAB19%7%1%0%0%0%N/A
Cal St. Bakersfield17%4%1%0%0%0%N/A
UNC Asheville15%4%1%0%0%0%N/A
North Florida14%4%1%0%0%0%N/A
Nebraska Omaha12%3%1%0%0%0%N/A
UCLA12%3%1%0%0%0%N/A
Montana10%3%0%0%0%0%N/A
Northern Illinois9%2%0%0%0%0%N/A
Navy7%1%0%0%0%0%N/A
Texas Southern5%1%0%0%0%0%N/A
Mount St. Mary's2%0%0%0%0%0%N/A
Hampton2%0%0%0%0%0%N/A
Houston Baptist1%0%0%0%0%0%N/A

As you may have surmised looking at the image above, the team I want to focus on is Texas A&M.  The latest simulation has the Aggies cutting down the nets 3.74% of the time yet they are currently being offered at +9000 at 5Dimes.  For comparison’s sake, Duke wins the tournament in 1.12% of simulations and they are being offered at +1200 at 5Dimes.  Obviously Duke has the pedigree and the name recognition which will garner more bets than actual performance will.

While rankings are not a true measure of talent, Texas A&M is ranked 10th in the AP Poll and 8th in the Coaches’ Poll.  A better measure of talent are the rankings at KenPom.com where the Aggies are currently ranked 13th in the country.  By any measure, Texas A&M is a top 20 team and taking them at +9000 offers a positive edge of 2.67% according to the Kelly Criterion.

I’ll add Texas A&M to West Virginia (+8000) and Villanova (+1500) as bets that I will track through the rest of the college basketball season.