March Madness Simulation

aandm court

Please jump over to the original simulation for an introduction for how the simulation works.

With the intro out of the way, let’s look at the latest simulation results:

Team2nd RoundSweet 16Elite 8Final FourFinalsChampsChamp Odds
Villanova93%70%51%33%20%13%674
Kansas96%72%45%28%18%10%932
Iowa90%70%44%26%15%9%1059
West Virginia91%65%45%25%15%8%1164
Oklahoma94%65%44%25%13%8%1216
North Carolina88%66%41%25%13%7%1379
Louisville84%57%30%17%10%5%1920
Xavier83%51%30%15%8%4%2281
Purdue79%54%30%18%9%4%2327
Maryland85%55%33%18%8%4%2419
Virginia86%54%29%16%8%4%2464
Texas A&M77%55%31%16%8%4%2574
Michigan St.83%52%29%14%7%3%2807
Arizona81%56%26%11%5%2%4015
Miami FL78%51%23%11%5%2%4267
Saint Mary's72%28%16%7%3%1%7043
Iowa St.73%41%16%8%3%1%8097
Duke66%36%14%6%3%1%8829
Baylor63%29%13%6%2%1%10104
Valparaiso53%24%12%5%2%1%10317
USC67%28%12%5%2%1%12246
Indiana59%26%13%5%2%1%12721
Oregon55%24%11%4%2%1%14393
Wichita St.47%21%10%4%2%1%15052
Florida54%19%10%4%1%1%16849
Notre Dame55%17%8%3%1%1%18419
Pittsburgh60%25%11%5%2%0%22122
Michigan55%16%6%2%1%0%31150
VCU45%18%7%2%1%0%31150
California60%20%8%3%1%0%35614
Kentucky58%25%9%3%1%0%35614
Butler46%14%7%2%1%0%43378
Connecticut45%12%6%2%1%0%43378
Monmouth41%15%6%2%1%0%49900
South Carolina53%15%5%2%1%0%58724
Providence52%18%7%2%1%0%66567
Cincinnati25%10%3%1%0%0%71329
Dayton52%21%7%2%1%0%76823
Gonzaga45%12%4%2%1%0%76823
Texas Tech48%17%6%2%1%0%99900
Colorado47%12%4%1%0%0%111011
Texas48%17%5%2%0%0%124900
Arkansas Little Rock42%15%4%1%0%0%142757
Stony Brook34%13%3%1%0%0%142757
Seton Hall24%8%3%1%0%0%142757
George Washington40%10%3%1%0%0%333233
Hawaii33%10%2%1%0%0%333233
Utah28%6%2%0%0%0%499900
Memphis23%10%3%1%0%0%499900
William & Mary22%9%2%0%0%0%499900
Yale21%8%2%1%0%0%499900
Oregon St.16%5%1%0%0%0%499900
San Diego St.27%9%2%0%0%0%999900
Belmont17%5%1%0%0%0%999900
Chattanooga16%5%1%0%0%0%999900
UAB19%7%1%0%0%0%N/A
Cal St. Bakersfield17%4%1%0%0%0%N/A
UNC Asheville15%4%1%0%0%0%N/A
North Florida14%4%1%0%0%0%N/A
Nebraska Omaha12%3%1%0%0%0%N/A
UCLA12%3%1%0%0%0%N/A
Montana10%3%0%0%0%0%N/A
Northern Illinois9%2%0%0%0%0%N/A
Navy7%1%0%0%0%0%N/A
Texas Southern5%1%0%0%0%0%N/A
Mount St. Mary's2%0%0%0%0%0%N/A
Hampton2%0%0%0%0%0%N/A
Houston Baptist1%0%0%0%0%0%N/A

As you may have surmised looking at the image above, the team I want to focus on is Texas A&M.  The latest simulation has the Aggies cutting down the nets 3.74% of the time yet they are currently being offered at +9000 at 5Dimes.  For comparison’s sake, Duke wins the tournament in 1.12% of simulations and they are being offered at +1200 at 5Dimes.  Obviously Duke has the pedigree and the name recognition which will garner more bets than actual performance will.

While rankings are not a true measure of talent, Texas A&M is ranked 10th in the AP Poll and 8th in the Coaches’ Poll.  A better measure of talent are the rankings at KenPom.com where the Aggies are currently ranked 13th in the country.  By any measure, Texas A&M is a top 20 team and taking them at +9000 offers a positive edge of 2.67% according to the Kelly Criterion.

I’ll add Texas A&M to West Virginia (+8000) and Villanova (+1500) as bets that I will track through the rest of the college basketball season.

©2016 Sports Insights Inc.

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