Another week, another simulation update for the college basketball season. With the latest bracketology out from Joe Lunardi, here are the results of the simulated bracket:
| Team | 2nd Round | Sweet 16 | Elite 8 | Final Four | Finals | Champions | Champ Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKLAHOMA | 94.3% | 69.2% | 51.9% | 34.9% | 20.7% | 12.5% | +701 |
| Iowa | 87.8% | 61.4% | 41.4% | 26.7% | 16.4% | 9.6% | +941 |
| Louisville | 80.0% | 52.8% | 31.3% | 20.2% | 12.3% | 7.6% | +1212 |
| NORTH CAROLINA | 94.4% | 67.2% | 43.7% | 24.9% | 13.9% | 7.5% | +1228 |
| VILLANOVA | 91.1% | 63.5% | 35.5% | 22.3% | 12.9% | 7.1% | +1318 |
| West Virginia | 84.1% | 53.4% | 30.6% | 17.6% | 9.8% | 5.3% | +1797 |
| Texas A&M | 85.9% | 52.4% | 29.0% | 16.4% | 8.7% | 4.5% | +2137 |
| Kansas | 89.2% | 61.3% | 34.6% | 16.8% | 8.7% | 4.1% | +2369 |
| Virginia | 84.7% | 56.3% | 33.0% | 15.5% | 8.3% | 4.0% | +2393 |
| Michigan St. | 82.4% | 58.8% | 34.0% | 17.3% | 8.1% | 3.9% | +2444 |
| Purdue | 77.0% | 49.7% | 29.4% | 15.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | +2538 |
| Xavier | 83.9% | 49.8% | 28.3% | 13.6% | 6.2% | 2.8% | +3421 |
| Maryland | 75.2% | 43.8% | 24.7% | 11.4% | 5.7% | 2.8% | +3458 |
| Miami FL | 80.6% | 48.5% | 22.7% | 12.6% | 6.2% | 2.8% | +3471 |
| Arizona | 76.6% | 35.4% | 17.1% | 9.2% | 5.0% | 2.6% | +3791 |
| Iowa St. | 70.2% | 43.9% | 21.5% | 10.2% | 4.8% | 2.4% | +4137 |
| Wichita St. | 69.9% | 34.9% | 17.0% | 8.5% | 4.1% | 1.8% | +5334 |
| Duke | 70.3% | 37.9% | 20.4% | 8.8% | 4.0% | 1.7% | +5647 |
| Saint Mary's | 70.7% | 28.6% | 15.1% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 1.6% | +6034 |
| Kentucky | 68.6% | 32.9% | 16.7% | 7.4% | 3.4% | 1.6% | +6351 |
| Indiana | 65.0% | 30.1% | 14.4% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 1.3% | +7533 |
| OREGON | 72.0% | 43.8% | 17.2% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 1.3% | +7592 |
| VALPARAISO | 60.5% | 30.8% | 16.2% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% | +9074 |
| Baylor | 53.8% | 26.0% | 10.0% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | +14825 |
| USC | 56.9% | 26.4% | 10.6% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.6% | +15773 |
| Florida | 51.3% | 18.7% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% | +19507 |
| Notre Dame | 54.1% | 16.9% | 9.1% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | +21176 |
| Connecticut | 56.9% | 19.3% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | +26927 |
| Michigan | 48.7% | 16.5% | 6.0% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | +27677 |
| Providence | 55.1% | 26.6% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | +31150 |
| Texas | 49.5% | 20.0% | 7.8% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | +34382 |
| VCU | 46.2% | 20.1% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | +35614 |
| Gonzaga | 53.8% | 20.8% | 8.2% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | +38361 |
| Dayton | 39.5% | 15.8% | 6.6% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | +41566 |
| California | 46.0% | 13.0% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | +43378 |
| Butler | 50.5% | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | +45354 |
| Pittsburgh | 55.3% | 20.4% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | +49900 |
| Arkansas Little Rock | 43.1% | 17.2% | 5.9% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | +52531 |
| South Carolina | 43.1% | 12.7% | 5.3% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | +55455 |
| Utah | 46.2% | 15.6% | 5.7% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | +66566 |
| UCLA | 44.7% | 14.6% | 5.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | +90809 |
| TULSA | 44.9% | 18.9% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | +99900 |
| George Washington | 29.3% | 7.0% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | +111011 |
| Monmouth | 29.7% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | +111011 |
| STONY BROOK | 29.8% | 12.5% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | +124900 |
| Colorado | 30.1% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | +166566 |
| Cincinnati | 22.8% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | +199900 |
| JAMES MADISON | 31.4% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | +249900 |
| YALE | 24.9% | 8.3% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | +249900 |
| HAWAII | 20.0% | 6.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | +333233 |
| CHATTANOOGA | 28.0% | 10.7% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | +333233 |
| LSU | 12.2% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | +499900 |
| San Diego St. | 23.4% | 5.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | +499900 |
| North Florida | 19.4% | 5.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +499900 |
| UAB | 17.6% | 6.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | +999900 |
| Nebraska Omaha | 12.2% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +999900 |
| Clemson | 14.8% | 5.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | N/A |
| BELMONT | 15.9% | 4.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | N/A |
| New Mexico St. | 14.1% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | N/A |
| Washington | 8.2% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | N/A |
| UNC ASHEVILLE | 15.3% | 4.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | N/A |
| NORTHERN ILLINOIS | 16.1% | 3.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | N/A |
| NAVY | 8.9% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | N/A |
| MONTANA | 10.8% | 2.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | N/A |
| Mount St. Mary's | 2.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | N/A |
| HAMPTON | 2.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | N/A |
| HOUSTON BAPTIST | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | N/A |
| TEXAS SOUTHERN | 4.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | N/A |
Oklahoma is currently the favorite to win the tournament as they cut down the nets in 12.5% of simulations. With the current odds at 5Dimes at +900, this is currently a +EV bet according to the simulation. Iowa is also offering some value at +1800 although hopefully you grabbed them earlier when they were +8000. Louisville is also +1800 and currently offering value.
No surprise that the favorites at 5Dimes are currently North Carolina (+625), Kansas (+800), Duke (+900) and Michigan State (+900). These blue blood programs are sure to attract most of the action as square bettors like to bet on teams and head coaches they are familiar with and have a lot of tournament experience.
While there is still some value on some teams at the top of the projections, we don’t have the juicy longshots that we have highlighted with West Virginia (+8000) and Texas A&M (+9000) in the past updates.
