March Madness Simulation Update

OU player

Another week, another simulation update for the college basketball season.  With the latest bracketology out from Joe Lunardi, here are the results of the simulated bracket: 

Team2nd RoundSweet 16Elite 8Final FourFinalsChampionsChamp Odds
OKLAHOMA94.3%69.2%51.9%34.9%20.7%12.5%+701
Iowa87.8%61.4%41.4%26.7%16.4%9.6%+941
Louisville80.0%52.8%31.3%20.2%12.3%7.6%+1212
NORTH CAROLINA94.4%67.2%43.7%24.9%13.9%7.5%+1228
VILLANOVA91.1%63.5%35.5%22.3%12.9%7.1%+1318
West Virginia84.1%53.4%30.6%17.6%9.8%5.3%+1797
Texas A&M85.9%52.4%29.0%16.4%8.7%4.5%+2137
Kansas89.2%61.3%34.6%16.8%8.7%4.1%+2369
Virginia84.7%56.3%33.0%15.5%8.3%4.0%+2393
Michigan St.82.4%58.8%34.0%17.3%8.1%3.9%+2444
Purdue77.0%49.7%29.4%15.0%7.7%3.8%+2538
Xavier83.9%49.8%28.3%13.6%6.2%2.8%+3421
Maryland75.2%43.8%24.7%11.4%5.7%2.8%+3458
Miami FL80.6%48.5%22.7%12.6%6.2%2.8%+3471
Arizona76.6%35.4%17.1%9.2%5.0%2.6%+3791
Iowa St.70.2%43.9%21.5%10.2%4.8%2.4%+4137
Wichita St.69.9%34.9%17.0%8.5%4.1%1.8%+5334
Duke70.3%37.9%20.4%8.8%4.0%1.7%+5647
Saint Mary's70.7%28.6%15.1%7.3%3.6%1.6%+6034
Kentucky68.6%32.9%16.7%7.4%3.4%1.6%+6351
Indiana65.0%30.1%14.4%6.8%2.9%1.3%+7533
OREGON72.0%43.8%17.2%8.3%3.5%1.3%+7592
VALPARAISO60.5%30.8%16.2%7.0%2.9%1.1%+9074
Baylor53.8%26.0%10.0%4.6%1.8%0.7%+14825
USC56.9%26.4%10.6%4.2%1.6%0.6%+15773
Florida51.3%18.7%6.8%3.0%1.3%0.5%+19507
Notre Dame54.1%16.9%9.1%4.1%1.4%0.5%+21176
Connecticut56.9%19.3%9.2%3.4%1.1%0.4%+26927
Michigan48.7%16.5%6.0%2.7%1.0%0.4%+27677
Providence55.1%26.6%8.3%3.3%1.0%0.3%+31150
Texas49.5%20.0%7.8%2.3%0.9%0.3%+34382
VCU46.2%20.1%6.7%2.7%1.0%0.3%+35614
Gonzaga53.8%20.8%8.2%2.6%0.9%0.3%+38361
Dayton39.5%15.8%6.6%2.3%0.8%0.2%+41566
California46.0%13.0%6.2%2.6%0.8%0.2%+43378
Butler50.5%19.5%7.3%2.1%0.6%0.2%+45354
Pittsburgh55.3%20.4%7.7%2.6%0.6%0.2%+49900
Arkansas Little Rock43.1%17.2%5.9%2.2%0.7%0.2%+52531
South Carolina43.1%12.7%5.3%1.8%0.5%0.2%+55455
Utah46.2%15.6%5.7%1.9%0.5%0.2%+66566
UCLA44.7%14.6%5.2%1.3%0.4%0.1%+90809
TULSA44.9%18.9%4.8%1.8%0.4%0.1%+99900
George Washington29.3%7.0%2.2%0.7%0.3%0.1%+111011
Monmouth29.7%10.1%3.5%0.9%0.3%0.1%+111011
STONY BROOK29.8%12.5%3.8%1.1%0.4%0.1%+124900
Colorado30.1%9.6%3.0%1.0%0.3%0.1%+166566
Cincinnati22.8%8.9%3.4%1.3%0.4%0.1%+199900
JAMES MADISON31.4%9.3%2.9%0.7%0.2%0.0%+249900
YALE24.9%8.3%2.5%0.7%0.2%0.0%+249900
HAWAII20.0%6.5%1.9%0.7%0.2%0.0%+333233
CHATTANOOGA28.0%10.7%2.5%0.7%0.1%0.0%+333233
LSU12.2%3.5%1.1%0.3%0.1%0.0%+499900
San Diego St.23.4%5.3%1.3%0.4%0.1%0.0%+499900
North Florida19.4%5.4%1.1%0.3%0.0%0.0%+499900
UAB17.6%6.2%1.5%0.3%0.1%0.0%+999900
Nebraska Omaha12.2%3.0%0.8%0.2%0.0%0.0%+999900
Clemson14.8%5.7%1.7%0.4%0.1%0.0%N/A
BELMONT15.9%4.1%0.9%0.2%0.0%0.0%N/A
New Mexico St.14.1%3.2%0.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%N/A
Washington8.2%2.4%0.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%N/A
UNC ASHEVILLE15.3%4.2%0.8%0.1%0.0%0.0%N/A
NORTHERN ILLINOIS16.1%3.6%0.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%N/A
NAVY8.9%1.4%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%N/A
MONTANA10.8%2.3%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%N/A
Mount St. Mary's2.8%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%N/A
HAMPTON2.8%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%N/A
HOUSTON BAPTIST1.8%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%N/A
TEXAS SOUTHERN4.0%0.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%N/A

Oklahoma is currently the favorite to win the tournament as they cut down the nets in 12.5% of simulations.  With the current odds at 5Dimes at +900, this is currently a +EV bet according to the simulation.  Iowa is also offering some value at +1800 although hopefully you grabbed them earlier when they were +8000.  Louisville is also +1800 and currently offering value.

No surprise that the favorites at 5Dimes are currently North Carolina (+625), Kansas (+800), Duke (+900) and Michigan State (+900).  These blue blood programs are sure to attract most of the action as square bettors like to bet on teams and head coaches they are familiar with and have a lot of tournament experience.

While there is still some value on some teams at the top of the projections, we don’t have the juicy longshots that we have highlighted with West Virginia (+8000) and Texas A&M (+9000) in the past updates.

 

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