March Madness Simulation Update

Iowa BB

We’re now into February and once the Super Bowl is over, we’ll be into March Madness before you know it.  Below are the results of the latest simulation.  You can view previous simulation results here, here, and here.

Team2nd RoundSweet 16Elite 8Final FourFinalsChampionsChamp Odds
OKLAHOMA93.0%65.7%50.7%30.5%18.4%11.2%+792
IOWA91.7%65.8%44.8%29.1%16.9%10.3%+871
VILLANOVA88.5%66.7%39.9%24.0%14.5%8.0%+1145
Virginia87.8%65.0%38.3%22.0%12.6%7.3%+1277
NORTH CAROLINA91.9%60.2%39.4%24.4%13.5%7.2%+1283
Michigan St.79.2%49.5%29.7%15.3%8.7%4.5%+2107
TEXAS A&M81.0%53.6%29.9%15.2%8.5%4.2%+2298
Xavier83.3%56.9%33.8%17.9%8.4%4.1%+2339
Maryland79.3%45.4%24.9%13.7%7.3%3.8%+2504
Louisville73.8%42.5%22.9%12.9%7.4%3.8%+2538
Iowa St.81.3%51.2%29.0%14.7%7.0%3.3%+2967
West Virginia77.3%42.5%22.4%12.1%6.8%3.3%+2976
Purdue75.0%48.8%23.9%13.0%6.0%2.7%+3563
Kansas83.3%46.5%25.9%12.7%5.9%2.7%+3563
Wichita St.66.8%36.4%19.5%10.4%5.7%2.7%+3563
OREGON78.9%44.6%23.6%11.1%5.1%2.5%+3965
Arizona68.8%33.9%17.3%7.9%4.0%2.0%+4925
Miami FL66.7%38.1%17.0%9.1%4.4%1.8%+5364
Duke59.5%31.6%16.4%7.6%3.5%1.5%+6393
Kentucky62.7%33.1%14.3%6.9%3.2%1.4%+7094
Florida54.1%21.5%11.7%5.9%2.6%1.0%+10001
Saint Mary's55.6%19.9%12.0%5.2%2.2%0.9%+11011
Indiana48.9%24.4%11.7%4.8%2.0%0.9%+11527
VALPARAISO51.1%25.3%12.4%5.3%2.2%0.8%+11804
Connecticut60.7%21.8%10.4%4.9%1.9%0.7%+13413
USC57.2%26.3%12.0%5.1%1.8%0.7%+13598
Texas55.3%22.8%10.1%4.0%1.6%0.7%+14185
Baylor61.3%27.8%10.6%4.9%1.7%0.6%+16029
VCU45.9%17.0%8.0%3.7%1.5%0.6%+16029
Michigan65.4%27.9%12.4%4.8%1.7%0.6%+16849
Dayton53.3%29.3%9.5%3.5%1.4%0.4%+24290
Notre Dame44.4%13.4%7.3%2.7%1.2%0.4%+26215
Providence62.9%32.3%10.0%3.3%1.1%0.4%+26927
CINCINNATI40.5%18.3%7.9%3.0%0.9%0.4%+27677
Saint Joseph's42.8%17.4%7.2%2.4%0.8%0.4%+27677
Gonzaga44.7%17.2%6.6%2.5%0.9%0.3%+32158
Utah55.9%18.4%6.6%2.2%0.7%0.2%+43378
Arkansas Little Rock46.7%24.0%7.0%2.3%0.7%0.2%+47519
Seton Hall18.9%7.5%3.1%1.1%0.4%0.2%+49900
Colorado49.0%14.6%4.7%1.4%0.5%0.2%+58723
STONY BROOK33.3%13.8%4.3%1.6%0.5%0.2%+66566
UCLA13.3%4.7%1.3%0.5%0.1%0.0%+499900
South Carolina51.0%15.6%5.2%1.8%0.6%0.1%+83233
LSU44.1%13.2%3.7%1.2%0.4%0.1%+83233
San Diego St.38.7%13.9%3.9%1.3%0.4%0.1%+124900
California14.3%5.2%1.9%0.8%0.2%0.1%N/A
Pittsburgh39.3%10.7%4.1%1.4%0.4%0.1%+166566
Clemson31.3%10.0%3.3%0.9%0.3%0.1%+166566
MONMOUTH26.2%8.7%2.6%0.8%0.2%0.0%N/A
Washington34.6%10.4%3.0%1.0%0.2%0.0%+249900
YALE22.8%6.3%1.8%0.5%0.2%0.0%+333233
South Dakota St.25.0%9.6%2.3%0.6%0.2%0.0%+333233
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN19.0%6.4%1.6%0.4%0.1%0.0%+499900
Syracuse24.0%10.3%3.5%1.3%0.4%0.2%+66566
New Mexico St.16.7%3.6%0.7%0.2%0.0%0.0%N/A
CHATTANOOGA37.2%14.4%3.2%0.8%0.1%0.0%+999900
BELMONT18.7%5.1%1.4%0.3%0.1%0.0%N/A
UAB16.8%4.8%1.3%0.3%0.1%0.0%N/A
Akron20.8%6.6%1.4%0.4%0.1%0.0%+0
HOFSTRA20.7%5.6%1.6%0.4%0.1%0.0%+0
UC IRVINE21.1%5.7%1.4%0.2%0.0%0.0%+0
UNC ASHEVILLE11.6%3.1%0.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%N/A
MONTANA8.3%1.8%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%N/A
NORTH FLORIDA12.2%3.4%0.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%N/A
BUCKNELL6.2%1.2%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%N/A
Wagner2.4%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%N/A
TEXAS SOUTHERN4.6%0.8%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%N/A
HAMPTON1.8%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%N/A

Oklahoma and Iowa were the only teams that won the championship in more than 10% of simulations and it’s intriguing to see a bunch of new faces in the mix for a title this season.  While North Carolina and Michigan State have the 5th and 6th best chances, traditional powerhouses such as Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, Arizona, and Connecticut are found in the middle of the pack.  The tournament isn’t hurting for ratings in the least bit, but seeing some of these teams without a cupcake in the first round should only add to the excitement.

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