The Blue Jays, Giants and Royals are off to a bad start. Each team concluded the month of April by winning less than 40% of their games. This is surprising considering that Toronto and San Francisco were playoffs teams last year and the Royals are just a year removed from back-to-back World Series appearances. How many teams have made the playoffs after a bad April?

If you are fan of the Jays, Giants or Royals, I have bad news for you. It is unlikely that any of these teams reach the postseason after their bad start. Using the Bet Labs database I pulled every team since 2005 that had a record below .400 on May 1st and found how many were able to right the ship and make the playoffs.

Since 2005, there have been 64 teams that have started the season worse than .400. Of those teams, only seven (10.9%) made the playoffs.

The last team to accomplish the feat was the Rangers in 2015. Texas began the year 7-14 (.333) and then went 81-60 (.574) the rest of the way.

Per FanGraphs, the Giants (19.1%) are the most likely team of the bunch to reach the postseason. The Jays have a 16.8% chance and the Royals just 1.9%. If you had to pick a team to bump the trend San Francisco is a logical selection. The Rockies lead the division but they have a negative run differential and the Giants have been playing without ace Madison Bumgarner (dirt bike) but he should return around the All-Star break.

Still, slow starts are killers. Nothing can be won in April but history suggests a playoff spot can be lost.


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SeasonTeamPlayoffs?
2017RoyalsNo
Blue JaysNo
GiantsNo
2016YankeesNo
AstrosNo
TwinsNo
RedsNo
PadresNo
BrewersNo
BravesNo
2015AthleticsNo
IndiansNo
RangersYes
PhilliesNo
BrewersNo
2014IndiansNo
AstrosNo
PiratesYes
CubsNo
DiamondbacksNo
2013Blue JaysNo
AngelsNo
AstrosNo
CubsNo
PadresNo
MarlinsNo
2012AngelsNo
RoyalsNo
TwinsNo
AstrosNo
MarlinsNo
CubsNo
PadresNo
2011TwinsNo
White SoxNo
AstrosNo
PadresNo
2010RoyalsNo
White SoxNo
OriolesNo
DodgersNo
BrewersNo
BravesYes
AstrosNo
2009RaysNo
IndiansNo
NationalsNo
2008Blue JaysNo
RangersNo
PadresNo
RockiesNo
NationalsNo
2007YankeesYes
RoyalsNo
RockiesYes
NationalsNo
2006TwinsYes
RoyalsNo
PadresYes
NationalsNo
MarlinsNo
PiratesNo
2005IndiansNo
RaysNo
RoyalsNo
PiratesNo
RockiesNo