Are you betting this Wild Card Weekend? Of course, let’s count the ways: straight-up, against the spread, over/under, and don’t forget about prop bets. Here are a few from Bovada.lv that we’ve provided a lean for based on our NFL Playoff simulations and Bet Labs database.
How many Wild Card Teams will win Wild Card Weekend?
- Over 0.5: -250
- Under 0.5: +170
Since 2003, the 5th and 6th seeds in the AFC and NFC has gone 24-32 straight-up on Wild Card Weekend. In that span, all four teams have been knocked out of the playoffs in the first weekend four times and only once have they swept each game (2015-16).
How many Wild Card teams will win this weekend? Carolina has the best chance at 40.2%, followed by the Titans (25.3%), Falcons (25.0%), and Bills (17.0%) according to our simulations. There is a 27.8% chance that each team is one-and-done in the postseason. Conversely, there is a 72.2% chance that at least one team (it won’t be you, Buffalo) moves on to the Divisional Round. Not a lot of edge here but at -250 the play is on the Over 0.5.
Will a Wild Card team make the Super Bowl?
- Yes: +400
- No: -700
Since the Wild Card system began in 1970, only 10 teams have advanced all the way to the Super Bowl after qualifying for the playoffs as a Wild Card team. Of those 10, six won the title – the Packers in 2010 were the last to accomplish the feat. Can the Panthers, Falcons, Titans or Bills make a deep playoff run? Unlikely. According to the simulations there is an 89.2% chance that all of these teams are eliminated before February.
At -700 odds, the implied probability of no Wild Card team reaching the NFL championship game is 87.5%. There is slight value or at least even odds to bet “no” on this prop.
What will be the biggest point differential in any of the four games during Wild Card Weekend?
- Over/Under: 20.5
Since 2003, on average the point differential in the Wild Card games has been 12.4 points. In last 14 postseasons, the biggest point differential in any of the four games topped 20.5 points nine times. Larger spreads should lead to bigger margins of victory. Three of the four games this year have a spread of 7 or more points. Since 2003, in years where at least two games in Wild Card weekend featured a favorite of a touchdown or more, at least one team won by more than 20.5 points in four of the five seasons.
What will be the most points scored by one team during Wild Card Weekend?
- Over/Under: 34.5
Since 2003, if you bet the Over 34.5 you would have gone 10-4 during Wild Card Weekend. Big spreads and two games with high totals (over 47) should produce some gaudy point totals.
NFL Wild Card Weekend
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Photo Courtesy of Bob Donnan- USA Today Sports