Joe Lunardi is an ESPN college basketball analyst best known for Bracketology. Joey Brackets has correctly picked every team in the tournament twice (2008 and 2013). How many teams will he get correct this year?
I’m glad you asked, there is a prop bet for that. 5Dimes is offering a slew of Joe Lunardi and bracket props. You can get +700 odds that he predicts all 68 teams correct (-1500 that he doesn’t).
There are three over/under totals listed: 64.5, 65.5 and 66.5. Each has varying juice associated with the props. One appears to offer value. Over 65.5 teams correct. In the six years since the tournament expanded to 68 teams, Lunardi has averaged 66.3 correct picks. He has gone over 65.5 four times (66.7%). The odds for Lunardi to go over 65.5 is -125, the implied odds suggest he has a 55.6% chance of doing so. There is value betting the OVER 65.5 correct teams.
The “First Four”, “Play-In” games or “Opening Round,” whatever you want to call them you can also bet on how many “at-large” teams Lunardi will correctly predict to play in Dayton.
|Number of Teams||Yes||No|
No. 1 Seeds
Joe Lunardi predicts all four #1 seeds:
- Yes -385
- No +265
The implied odds suggest there is a 79.3% chance Lunardi gets all of the No. 1 seeds correct. This makes sense; there are only a handful of teams that can reach the top line at this point in the season. Gonzaga defeated Saint Mary’s 74-56 in the WCC tournament championship game last night. With a 32-1 record the Zags are locks for a No. 1 seed. Now all Lunardi needs to do is figure out the last three teams.
Will there be a perfect Bracket on ESPN.com?
- Yes +4000
- No -10000
Scientists and mathematicians disagree on the exact odds but their guesses range from approximately 1-in-5 billion to 1-in-135 billion. Not great. To our knowledge there has never been a perfect bracket filled out electrically on one of the major sites (ESPN, Yahoo, CBS, etc.). Betting “No” is a fairly safe wager but do you really want to put up $10,000 to win $100?
All-time March Madness Pro Systems are 882-592 (60%), +239.41 units
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How accurate is Joe Lunardi’s bracket?
|Year||Total Teams||Correct Teams||Correct%|