Before the season began, a Jaguars-Saints Super Bowl seemed ludicrous. The Golden Nugget listed the potential title matchup at 500/1 (0.2% implied probability). With both teams sitting in first place in their respective divisions and in contention for a first round bye, the thought of the NFL championship game featuring Blake Bortles and the Saints’ defense isn’t as wild.

Jacksonville (4th) and New Orleans (5th) are among the best teams in the league according to our Power Rankings. Each is using a one-two punch of the run and defense. The Jags and Saints are 1st and 3rd in rushing yards per game and rank in the top five in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA.

The probability of a Jags-Saints Super Bowl is 3.5%, the 10th most likely matchup in our simulations. 5Dimes put the odds of Jacksonville and New Orleans meeting in Minneapolis for Super Bowl 52 at +6150. The implied probability according to the betting market is 1.6%. That means there is value betting we see this exact Super Bowl come February.

5 Most likely Super Bowls

  • Patriots-Eagles 14.0%
  • Steelers-Eagles 10.5%
  • Jaguars-Eagles 7.7%
  • Patriots-Saints 6.8%
  • Patriots-Vikings 6.4%

Here is everything else you need to know after Week 11. Our projections are based on 10,000 simulations of the 2017-18 season using player and team statistics adjusted for strength of schedule.

Biggest Winners

Baltimore Ravens (+21.9% increase in playoff probability): The Ravens defense had six sacks, three interceptions and forced two fumbles in a 22-0 shutout of the Packers. The win plus a Bills loss helped Baltimore’s playoff probability increase by more than 20%. Joe Flacco still plays quarterback for the team so expectations should be low but a playoff appearance looks like a real possibility.

Atlanta Falcons (+18.9% increase in playoff probability): Fun fact, the Falcons were 6-4 after ten games last year and went to the Super Bowl. Atlanta only has a 3.0% chance of returning to the title game this season but with wins over Dallas and Seattle the team will compete for a playoff spot in the NFC.

Biggest Losers

Buffalo Bills (-18.4% decrease in playoff probability):

Dallas Cowboys (-17.1% decrease in playoff probability): Back-to-back losses by more than 20 points has put a damper on the Cowboys’ postseason plans. Two weeks ago, Dallas had a 54.3% chance to make the playoffs. Life moves fast in the NFL.


Week 12: Cowboys vs. Chargers

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Most likely AFC Playoff teams:

  • Patriots 99.9%
  • Steelers 99.9%
  • Jaguars 99.8%
  • Chiefs 93.9%
  • Ravens 80.2%
  • Titans 67.5%

Most likely NFC Playoff teams:

  • Eagles 99.9%
  • Vikings 95.4%
  • Saints 92.7%
  • Rams 78.3%
  • Seahawks 70.7%
  • Panthers 65.1%

Odds to get 1st Pick

  • Browns 74.5%
  • 49ers 21.7%
  • Giants 3.1%

Lot of movement in our Power Rankings this week. Seahawks fell to 12th, Cowboys to 15th but the Browns are holding steady. Cleveland (0-10) found another way to lose and not cover on Sunday against the Jags (fumble recovered in the end zone with a minute to play). The Factory of Sadness will get rewarded for continued futility at the end of the season. There is a 74.5% chance the Browns choose first in next year’s draft, up from 60.8% last week.

Below are the updated playoff probabilities for every NFL team.

TeamDivision Winner %Make Playoffs %Win Super Bowl %
New England Patriots99.599.921.2
Philadelphia Eagles99.899.919.1
Pittsburgh Steelers95.399.915.1
Jacksonville Jaguars90.499.810.6
New Orleans Saints71.492.78.5
Minnesota Vikings8695.48.3
Los Angeles Rams54.178.34.7
Kansas City Chiefs89.893.94
Seattle Seahawks45.870.72.2
Carolina Panthers19.365.11.9
Baltimore Ravens4.680.21.8
Atlanta Falcons9.345.61
Detroit Lions13.842.20.8
Tennessee Titans9.567.50.3
Los Angeles Chargers7.318.10.2
Buffalo Bills0.5160.1
Dallas Cowboys0.27.80.1
Oakland Raiders2.57.70.1
Cincinnati Bengals05.90
Houston Texans0.24.10
New York Jets02.80
Miami Dolphins0.12.50
Denver Broncos0.41.20
Tampa Bay Buccaneers0.11.10
Green Bay Packers0.20.90
Indianapolis Colts00.60
Arizona Cardinals0.10.30
Washington Redskins00.10
Cleveland Browns000
New York Giants000
San Francisco 49ers000
Chicago Bears000