How many wins will the Warriors end up with?

November 4, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) celebrates after making a three-point shot during the fourth quarter against the Los Angeles Clippers at Oracle Arena. The Warriors defeated the Clippers 112-108. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

With a 52-5 record and 25 games remaining, all eyes are on the Golden State Warriors to see if they can surpass the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls for the most wins in a season.  I simulated the rest of the season 10,000 times to find out the answer.  I used the Log5 method to determine the Warriors’ chances in each of their remaining games (while using pythagorean expectation to determine each team’s true win percentage).

Tonight’s clash in Oklahoma City is Golden State’s 4th toughest game remaining according to the simulation.  The three tougher games are all against the Spurs, including two in San Antonio which are the only games remaining where the Warriors are not the favorite.  The other 21 games remaining all have the Warriors at least a 70% favorite to win including a 97% chance to beat the 76ers on March 27th.

Here are the simulation results:

Warriors bar chart

The most likely result is that the Warriors tie the ’96 Bulls with a 72-10 record.  They eclipsed 72 wins in 42% of simulations with their best result being a 77-5 record meaning they didn’t lose throughout the rest of the season.  Golden State failed to reach 72 wins in 36.7% of simulations.

The three games against the Spurs and tonight’s game in Oklahoma City will go a long way in determining how well this season finishes for the Dubs.  Currently 77% of bets are taking Golden State -3.5 tonight which could end up determining whether they get to the magical number of 73 wins.

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