Historic start, Disastrous Finish?

The Texas Rangers are off to a historic start. At 54-36, the team has the best record in the American League and has been money in the bank for bettors. Here are the most profitable teams in 2016 (based on $100 per wager).

The Rangers are making the bookmakers sweat. As you can see, Texas has made twice as much money for bettors as the next most profitable team (Giants). Can the Rangers keep this blistering pace up? What about the rest of the top teams in the LuckBox?

To find out I pulled the last five years of Bet Labs data looking at how the most profitable teams in the first half did after the All-Star break. Few teams cashed tickets at the same rate in the second half.

Of the 25 most profitable teams since 2011 (five from each season) in the first half, only seven were able to maintain their winning ways and finish the second half in the top five of profitability. If you had the good fortune, foresight or just plain dumb luck to bet each of these teams in the first half of their respective seasons you would have made $26,435. Not bad for a few months work. The returns weren’t nearly as impressive in the second half.

For one reason or another, most teams (18 out of 25) made less money in the second half. Combined, the teams that were so generous to bettors in the first half made just $3,979 in the second half. That’s not bad; it just isn’t spectacular like the first half returns.

The Rangers are the darlings of the betting world. However, Texas’ underlying statistics hint at a team that is more like a .500 ball club and the forecasting systems don’t paint a pretty picture for the Rangers in the second half either. Now might be the time to fade Texas and the rest of the first half’s most profitable teams.