The Heisman is a Bad Bet

Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson are the favorites to win the 2017 Heisman Trophy. There are over 40 star players with odds representing many of the marquee programs in the nation. Your alma mater might even have a candidate. While tempting, the Heisman is a bad bet.

Since 2009, there have been 81 players that began the season with +2000 or better odds to win the Heisman per SportsOddsHistory. We will call this group our preseason favorites. In this collection of the most talented players in college football only 23 finished in the top 10 in voting. Just 11 were invited to New York for the ceremony and only one of the preseason favorites actually won the award.

Preseason Favorites

• 28.4% finish in the top 10
• 13.6% are Heisman finalist
• 1 – number of preseason favorites to win Heisman

It is hard to predict which player will win the Heisman. It is even harder to profit off of this bet. The oddsmakers edge on this prop is 46.6% in 2017. The books aren’t giving you true odds, the bet ties up a portion of your bankroll for the entire college football season and there is a chance a player like Lamar Jackson (was off the board or 100/1 in preseason) will come out of nowhere to win it.

Darnold, Mayfield and Jackson seem like good bets to win the Heisman but the odds are against them to be finalists, let alone the actual winner.

2017 Heisman Odds