BYU ended Gonzaga’s perfect season Saturday night. The upset was enough to knock the Bulldogs from the top spot in the AP Poll. Despite the loss the Zags are still the No. 1 team in the country and we can prove it.

We simulated each of the top-10 teams in the AP Poll against each other on a neutral court 10,000 times and ranked them based on winning percentage in those games.

Mark Few’s squad is the only team projected to win every matchup against the other top-10 teams. Kansas, the new No. 1 in the AP Poll, would only be 36.0% likely to beat the West Coast Conference champs.

The other big winner from the simulations: West Virginia. The Mountaineers jump from 10th to second behind Gonzaga. The numbers (sims) have liked Press-Virginia all season. UCLA drops from 3rd to 9th, the Bruins score the most points/game in the nation but also give up the 254th most.

Top 10 Matrix – likelihood of winning vs. other top 10 teams 


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Reranking the AP Poll

RankTeam Win% vs. Top 10
1Gonzaga0.647
2West Virginia0.546
3Villanova0.544
4Louisville0.539
5North Carolina0.538
6Kentucky0.533
7Kansas0.503
8Oregon0.403
9UCLA0.388
10Arizona0.359