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Each week we will provide a betting trend for the most interesting NFL games. Some trends will be team specific and others situational. Our database goes back to 2003, the trends include all games in that time frame unless otherwise mentioned.
Giants vs. Chiefs (-10.5)
The Giants (1-8) are one of the league’s worst teams. After losing to the previously winless 49ers 31-21 on Sunday, it is hard to imagine the G-Men beating anyone. Big Blue returns home to host the Chiefs, oddsmakers have made KC double-digit favorites on the road. Casual bettors are fading Eli Manning and Ben McAdoo, at the time of publication the home team is getting just 21% of bets. The Giants (3-6 ATS) have burned bettors all season and are primed to do so again.
- Double-digit dog after a double-digit loss: 107-85-4 (55.7%) ATS
Browns vs. Jaguars (-7.5)
Jacksonville was lucky to escape with a win over the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 10. The team’s matchup against the Browns shouldn’t be as close on Sunday. The Jags are favored on the road by more than a touchdown for the first time since 2008. With one of the NFL’s best defenses and a strong run game, Jacksonville has defied the bookmakers covering the spread on average by 10 points this season. That is an unsustainable trend.
Team that have covered the spread by an average margin of 10 or more points: 136-151-11 (47.4%) ATS
- Favored in the next game: 87-107-6 (44.8%) ATS
Texans vs. Cardinals (-1)
In three starts by Tom Savage the Texans have averaged 9.33 PPG and a -11.92 Vegas Plus/Minus. Savage is bad but the Cardinals projected quarterback on Sunday is Blaine Gabbert (9-31 SU and 16-23-1 ATS). Houston looked dreadful in a 33-7 loss to the Los Angeles Rams but historically there has been value betting dogs after a blowout.
- Underdogs after a blowout (20 or more points): 258-209-13 (55.2%) ATS
Raiders vs. Patriots (-7) in Mexico City
Tom Brady and Bill Belichick pummeled the Broncos 41-16 on Sunday night. Just about everything went right for the Pats (special teams takeaway, blocked punt and kickoff return for a touchdown) as it often does for any team that runs away with a game. Usually, the ball doesn’t bounce the same way in the next week and the advantages a team enjoyed in the previous blowout evaporate. Teams after an easy win are a bad bet, unless that team is quarterbacked by the GOAT.
All teams after a big win (20 or more points): 334-370-24 (47.4%) ATS
- Tom Brady after a big win: 34-17-2 (66.7%) ATS
Cowboys vs. Eagles (-3.5)
Philly travels to Dallas for a key NFC East showdown. The Eagles (8-1) could wrap up the division with a win. Dallas (5-4) is a 3.5-point dog at home and less than 30% of spread bets are on the Cowboys after a disappointing 27-7 loss to the Falcons. Cowboys-Eagles will be the most bet game in Week 11, which side are sharps on?
This NFL Pro System is 142-89-4 (61.5%) ATS, +44.64 units since 2003