We are all Georgia Tech fans this week. Not because the Yellow Jackets run the triple-option or because they are two plays from being 6-0 but GaTech has a chance to hand Clemson a second straight loss.
Don’t get it twisted, we aren’t hating on the Tigers but if Clemson were to drop back-to-back games there is a chance for a rare betting opportunity: fading a Top 25 team on a losing streak.
It doesn’t happen very often but occasionally a ranked team will hit a skid but remain in the Top 25. The last time this occurred was late last season with Texas A&M. The Aggies lost to Mississippi State and Ole Miss in consecutive weeks. How did Kevin Sumlin’s team remain in the polls?
A&M had a strong record before losing two straight. The Aggies had wins over No. 9 Tennessee, No. 16 UCLA and No. 17 Arkansas, plus the losses to the Bulldogs and Rebels were by a combined eight points.
In their next game, Texas A&M was favored by 26-points over UTSA. The Aggies won but failed to cover. Fading ranked teams on a losing streak has been a profitable strategy.
If Georgia Tech can pull the upset, the Yellow Jackets are 14-point underdogs, Clemson could be a match for this system. A narrow loss to Syracuse followed by an upset against Georgia Tech would knock Dabo Swinney’s team out of the playoff conversation but wins over No. 12 VaTech, No. 13 Auburn and No. 14 Louisville might leave Clemson as a low ranked two-loss squad.
Clemson hasn’t lost back-to-back games since 2011 and the Tigers have won 26 of their last 27 home games. It’s unlikely that Clemson loses two in a row but if they do remember its profitable to fade ranked teams on a losing streak (31-18-1, 63.3% ATS since 2005).