Finding Value on the Sharks in Game 5

NHL Stanley Cup Finals

The Sharks are down 3-1 in the Stanley Cup after losing to Pittsburgh 3-1 in Game 4 Monday night. How likely is San Jose to rally in their first-ever finals?

Through the 2016 playoffs, there have been 285 teams that have taken a 3-1 series lead. Only 28 times has the team trailing in the best-of-seven series comeback to win. Historically speaking, the Penguins are more than 90 percent likely to win their fourth Cup. That isn’t a great trend for the Sharks but it gets worse.

Teams up 3-1 in Stanley Cup Final are 31-1 all-time. The lone comeback belongs to the Maple Leafs in 1942 when they rallied from a 3-0 deficit to upend Detroit.

Hockey’s holy chalice won’t likely find its way to San Jose but there is a silver lining. Teams down 3-1 don’t go down without a fight.

In the last eight years, teams down 3-1 in a series have gone 32-25 in Game 5, a 56 percent win rate. The Sharks have a chance to stave off elimination and force Game 6 back in San Jose. Rallying from a 3-1 deficit isn’t impossible, it is just improbable.

San Jose is down, not out, creating an opportunity for bettors.

Teams Down 3-1

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