Finding Value in Super Bowl Matchups

Finding Value in Super Bowl Matchups

Think you know who will win the Super Bowl? What about the team your champion will beat? If you look deep enough into your crystal ball you might see the exact matchup for Super Bowl LI. Oh, you don’t have an all-seeing eye? No worries, we got you covered with value bets for exact Super Bowl matchups.

To determine if a matchup has value we look at what their current odds are at 5Dimes and compare that to our projected odds that the two teams meet in the Super Bowl. For example, the Steelers and Cowboys are +4400, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on that matchup the two teams would need to square off 2.2% (which is 100/(4400+100)) of the time. The projected chance of a Pittsburgh/Dallas Super Bowl is 2.5%, meaning there is value in placing a bet at +4400 odds.

Here are a few other teams with value.

Patriots vs. Cowboys

Current odds: +780, Implied Probability: 11.4%

Chance of matchup: 20.6%

The Patriots are the best team in football and the Cowboys are the best of the rest. Yet, the Week 10 matchup between the Pats and Seahawks is the favorite to be played again in Super Bowl LI. While Sunday night’s showdown will be entertaining, the best bet for Super Bowl participants is New England and Dallas.

Patriots vs. Vikings

Current odds: +2100, Implied Probability: 4.5%

Chance of matchup: 12.4%

If you don’t love the Cowboys but still want to pair a team with the Pats look no further than Minnesota. Sure, the Vikings are on a three game losing streak and the offense has been frightful but the defense ranks in the top 5 in DVOA. Remember, Denver won the Super Bowl last year with the same recipe.

Broncos vs. Cowboys

Current odds: +5100, Implied Probability: 1.9%

Chance of matchup: 6.3%

The Raiders soundly beat Denver last Sunday and the Broncos are now third in the AFC West, which makes it a perfect time to buy back on the defending champions. If the playoffs started today, Denver would be in. Dallas is the second most likely champion in our simulations making this longshot matchup worth the gamble.

Other matchups with value: Broncos/Seahawks +4650 and Chiefs/Cowboys +4650


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Below are the most likely Super Bowl matchups and their odds.

Exact MatchupOddsImplied ProbabilityProjected Chance
Patriots vs. Seahawks+70012.59.5
Patriots vs. Cowboys+78011.420.6
Patriots vs. Falcons+12107.63.6
Patriots vs. Packers+15006.31.9
Patriots vs. Vikings+21004.512.4
Patriots vs. Cardinals+29253.32.1
Patriots vs. Giants+33502.90.4
Patriots vs. Panthers+37502.60.2
Steelers vs. Seahawks+40002.41.2
Chiefs vs. Seahawks+42252.31.8
Steelers vs. Cowboys+44002.22.5
Broncos vs. Seahawks+46502.12.9
Chiefs vs. Cowboys+46502.13.9
Raiders vs. Seahawks+46502.10.8
Patriots vs. Lions+47752.10.2
Broncos vs. Cowboys+51001.96.3
Raiders vs. Cowboys+51001.91.8
Steelers vs. Falcons+66001.50.4
Patriots vs. Saints+69001.40.3

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