The Final Four is in Glendale, Arizona this year. Will your favorite team be playing in the final weekend of the NCAA tournament? Here are “Yes”, “No” Final Four bets with value.

To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to reach the Final Four at Top Bet and compare that to our projected odds. For example, Kansas is +230 to reach the Final Four, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Jayhawks they would need to get to Glendale 30.3% (which is 100/(230+100)) of the time. KU is projected to win its region 19.8% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +230 odds.

Yes Final Four

Gonzaga Bulldogs

Current odds: +300, Implied Probability: 25.0%

Zags make Final Four 49.7% of the time

The Zags are the No. 1 team in our Power Rankings and the most likely NCAA tournament champion. Gonzaga is nearly 50% likely to reach the Final Four – the first in program history.

Baylor Bears

Current odds: +900, Implied Probability: 10.0%

Bears make Final Four 18.5% of the time

The Bears have lost five of their last nine games. Not really reassuring but then again that is why the odds are inflated. Baylor just beat West Virginia – the fourth victory against a top 10 opponent this season (tied second most). To be the best, you have to beat the best and Baylor has proven it can.

Other teams with value to make Final Four: UNC +200, Kentucky +350 and Louisville +415

No Final Four

UCLA Bruins

Current odds: -310, Implied Probability: 75.6%

Bruins don’t make Final Four 88.1% of the time

If March Madness were an all-star game (all offense and no defense) UCLA would be the favorite to win. Unfortunately, you need to bring it on both ends of the court to cut down the nets and the Bruins are one of the worst defensive teams in the country.

Duke Blue Devils

Current odds: -330, Implied Probability: 76.7%

Dukies don’t make Final Four 87.8% of the time

Coach K has built a great program. Duke has been to 21 straight NCAA tournaments and has reached five Final Fours in that time frame. Still, it’s called March Madness for a reason and the Dukies have been bounced in the first round twice (Mercer 2014, Lehigh 2012) in the last five years. It has been an up and down season in Durham, it just doesn’t feel like Duke’s year.

Other teams with value not to make Final Four: Kansas -310, Nova -320, Oregon -425 and Arizona -700


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Yes/No Final Four odds

SchoolYesNoFinal 4 Chance
North Carolina+200-26036.1%
Kansas+230-31019.8%
UCLA+230-31011.9%
Villanova+240-32022.5%
Duke+250-33012.2%
Gonzaga+300-40049.7%
Oregon+315-42513.0%
Kentucky+350-50029.6%
Louisville+415-62520.4%
Arizona+450-7008.9%
Baylor+900-180018.5%