Fade teams off an upset win

LeBron Cleveland Cavaliers

With the Warriors leading the series 3-2, Game 6 of the NBA Finals tips tonight in Cleveland. A win would give Golden State its second consecutive NBA Championship, a loss forces a winner-take-all Game 7 back in the Roarcle.

There are a lot of reasons to like the defending champions tonight:

  • Golden State has only lost back-to-back games once this season.
  • All-Star playmaker and defensive dynamo Draymond Green is back
  • LeBron and Kyrie Irving are unlikely to combine for +80 points
  • Kyrie won’t shoot 10-of-14 on contested field goal attempts
  • The Dubs shot just 16-of-44 (.364) on uncontested shots – this is the best shooting team EVER
  • Steve Kerr might fully unleash the Death Lineup with Andrew Bogut out

Those are all great reasons but here is one more from a betting angle.

Fade teams off an upset win.

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Using our BetLabs data we found that fading NBA Playoff teams after they won a game in a series as an underdog of four or more points has been very profitable. The Cavs’ win in Game 5 qualifies as such an event. In our database fading teams off an upset has gone 97-63 (60.6%) against-the-spread and has a ROI (return on investment) of over 18 percent.

LeBron might force a Game 7 but there are many reasons to think the series ends tonight.

©2016 Sports Insights Inc.

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