Oklahoma soundly beat No. 2 Ohio State 31-16 in the marquee matchup of Week 2 in college football. Baker Mayfield threw for 386 yards and three touchdowns. After the game was over the Sooners’ quarterback planted the schools flag in the middle of the field.
The win propelled OU to second in the country behind Alabama. Mayfield and the Sooners opened as 34-point favorites over Tulane on Saturday. More than 70% of spread bets are on Oklahoma to cover.
That is a mistake, sharp bettors will fade ranked teams off a top 10 win. To be a contrarian bettor you need to buy on bad news and sell on good. A team that upsets a top 10 opponent is a prime candidate to bet against.
Since 2005, betting against a ranked team that beat a top 10 opponent the previous week went 116-94 (55.2%) ATS.
We can improve the win rate by targeting favorites after a statement win.
|All Favorites||100-77 (56.5%)||+17.24||9.7%|
|7 or more points||81-56 (59.1%)||+20.33||14.8%|
|14 or more points||62-38 (62.0%)||+20.30||20.3%|
|21 or more points||37-21 (63.9%)||+13.76||+23.7%|
The bigger the favorite the better the win rate. Fading ranked teams favored by 14 or more points after beating a top 10 opponent has gone 62-38 (62.0%) ATS, +20.3 units.
No. 2 Oklahoma is the darlings of the college football world, which makes them a great fade in Week 3.
2017 NFL and College Football
All Pro System picks are +18.26 units