Iowa State stunned No. 3 Oklahoma rallying from down 24-10 to beat the Sooners 38-31 in Norman on Saturday.

Losing as a big favorite has become a bit of a habit for OU. The upset knocked Oklahoma from No. 3 to No. 12 in the polls. Despite the poor showing, the Sooners opened as 7.5-point favorites over Texas in the Red River Rivalry. A majority of spread tickets are on Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma to cover.

Casual bettors are expecting OU to bounce back after stumbling at home against the Cyclones. Is that the right bet?

Ranked teams After a Loss

Next GameATS RecordUnits
All Games213-264 (44.7%)-59.99
As Favorite173-205 (45.8%)-39.37
Road/Neutral site88-105 (45.6%)-20.33
50% or more of bets169-204 (45.3)-42.63
Conference game171-216 (44.2%)-52.26

Bettors have lost their bankrolls chasing top 25 teams after a loss. Regardless of the situation a ranked team, following a loss, has not been profitable.

Fading ranked teams after a loss, like Oklahoma, has gone 264-213 (55.3%) ATS, +36.43 units since 2005. You can improve the win rate if the team made a bowl the year before and lost by a touchdown or more.

Oklahoma disappointed bettors last week and are primed to do so again Saturday.

College Football Pro Systems

All picks are 116-94, +20.78 units in 2017.

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