No. 3 Clemson at No. 14 Louisville, the marquee matchup of Week 3, was supposed to be competitive. Yet the defending champions, 3-point road favorites, blew out 2016 Heisman winner Lamar Jackson and the Cardinals 47-21. U of L dropped to No. 19 in the polls but opened as 38-point favorites at home against Kent. Over 60% of bets are on the Cards to bounce back and cover (line up to 42.5). Is betting Power 5 teams after a blowout loss the right move?
Ranked teams tend to be overrated by the public. Louisville was expected to compete for the ACC title but looked outclassed by Clemson. It’s important to not overreact after one game but the Cardinals have looked pedestrian, two wins against teams with a combined 3-3 record in 2017. It appears pollsters and casual bettors are crediting Louisville for what it did in 2016 (started 9-1 with two top 5 wins), not the team on the field this season.
It has been profitable fading ranked Power 5 teams after a loss.
The bigger the loss the previous week the more profitable it is to bet against ranked teams from the big boy conferences.
|Margin of Defeat||ATS Record||Units||ROI|
|7 or more points||142-112||+21.51||+8.5%|
|10 or more points||114-77||+30.36||+15.9%|
|14 or more points||90-57||+27.65||+18.8%|
Ranked teams from the SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Pac-12 and Big 12 that lost the previous week by 10 or more points have gone 77-114 (59.7%) ATS the next week.
Fading these teams is the right move. Especially if they are big favorites the next week.
Fading ranked Power 5 teams after a blowout loss (10 or more points): 59.7% ATS. When that team is favored by 14 or more points the next week: 47-21 (69.1%) ATS.
Majority of bets are on Louisville but smart money would take Kent plus the points.
Bonus: No. 25 LSU got waxed by unranked Mississippi State 37-7 on Saturday. The Tigers are favorites of more than three touchdowns this week at home against Syracuse. Another fade opportunity for sharp bettors.
College Football Pro Systems
2017 picks: 79-55 (59.0%), +22.61 units