Contrarian bettors buy on bad news and sell on good news. Sharps buy teams that fail to cover the spread, load up on squads after a bad loss and fade the NFL’s best teams. By doing so they are able to take advantage of artificially inflated lines.
What do the Rams, Eagles and Falcons all have in common? They dominated in their last game winning at home by at least three scores. Fading teams after a blowout home win is 332-259-17 (56.2%) ATS, +56.04 units since 2003.
This is a profitable strategy whether teams are favored or getting points, at home or on the road, or have public support in their next game. L.A., Philly and Atlanta all looked like World-beaters in Week 10, sell on good news, and fade these teams.
Games Impacted in Week 11
Vikings (-2.5) vs. Rams: Los Angeles has won four straight including a 33-7 butt kicking of the Texans last Sunday. The Rams lead the league in scoring (32.9 ppg) but will have a tough test against Minnesota’s stout defense (8th in DVOA). In two games this season against top 10 defenses (Seahawks/Jags), L.A. averaged 18.5 points.
Cowboys (+3.5) vs. Eagles: Dallas is a 3.5-point underdog at home. Less than 20% of spread bets are on the Cowboys. As Marky Mark points out in his Opening Line Report, sharp bettors are fading the Eagles. Three bet signals (reverse line movement) have been triggered on the ‘Boys.
Seahawks (-3) vs. Falcons: Seattle is only a -143 moneyline favorite (58.8% implied probability) on Monday Night Football. A majority of bettors are taking Atlanta on the road but according to our simulations the Seahawks win 62.5% of the time, it’s one of the reasons we think they have value to make the playoffs.
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