It’s halftime of Thursday Night Football. Chicago is trailing Green Bay, which side do you bet in the 2nd half? Fade the Bears if they are losing at halftime.
The oddsmakers aren’t expecting this game to be close. Green Bay is a 7.5-point favorite at Lambeau Field. Teams favored on Thursday Night Football have treated bettors right.
Favorites on #TNF: 88-62 (58.7%) ATS
Favorites of 7 or more points: 34-19 (64.2%) ATS pic.twitter.com/xcniz3Laza
— Bet Labs Sports (@Bet_Labs) September 28, 2017
On a short week, with less time to recover and prepare, the favorites (usually the better team) are more equipped to handle the suboptimal conditions due to the advantages of superior talent and coaching.
It is fair to assume Chicago will be down after the first two quarters. Aaron Rodgers has only trailed at home as a favorite in the first half 18 times in his career. How do underdogs, like the Bears, perform when trailing heading into the locker room on Thursday Night Football?
The bigger the halftime deficit the more money these teams have cost bettors.
|Losing at the Half||ATS Record||ROI|
|By 3 or more points||37-49||-15.8%|
|By 7 or more points||29-39||-17.4%|
|By 14 or more points||10-15||-23.1%|
A working theory on these Thursday night performances: underdogs on a short week are already at a disadvantage, if they are trailing at the half they pack it in and look forward to a mini-bye week (10 days off) before their next game.
If you buy this theory and the Bears are losing at halftime, bet the Packers to cover the 2nd half spread.
NFL and College Football Pro Systems
All football picks: +30.1 units in 2017