The Sweet 16 hasn’t even tipped yet but we can lookahead to potential Elite Eight matchups. 5Dimes has posted moneylines for every possible Elite Eight game. Which teams are the bookmakers undervaluing?
Yesterday we updated our Sweet 16 Power Rankings by simulating every team against all other remaining tournament squads. By converting the likelihood of a team winning against the other Sweet 16 teams we can come up with a projected moneyline for potential Elite Eight matchups.
The oddsmakers are undervaluing the winner of the Oregon-Michigan game in the Midwest. The winner of the Kansas-Purdue matchup is favored over both the Ducks and Wolverines. Our simulations agree that the Jayhawks-Boilermakers should be favored but the lines are high and we expect the contests to be closer than the odds suggest.
North Carolina is a solid -165 favorite against Kentucky in a potential South region final. The implied odds suggest the Tar Heels would win the game more than 60% of the time. According to 10,000 simulations the matchup is a 50/50 proposition.
Arizona is getting the respect of a 2-seed but according to our numbers the Wildcats are overvalued. Arizona is favored against West Virginia but if we were setting the line Press Virginia would be a sizeable favorite. Against the Zags, Arizona would be an even bigger underdog.
No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 11 Xavier
There is a Pro System pick for this game that is 95-63 (60%) ATS
Potential Elite Eight matchups and odds
|Potential Elite Eight||5Dimes Favorite||BetLabs Converted Odds|
|Wisconsin vs. South Carolina||WIS -150||-134|
|Wisconsin vs. Baylor||WIS -115||102|
|Florida vs. South Carolina||FL -185||-242|
|Florida vs. Baylor||FL -135||-126|
|Purdue vs. Michigan||PUR -135||-126|
|Purdue vs. Oregon||PUR -140||-101|
|Kansas vs. Michigan||KU -225||-173|
|Kansas vs. Oregon||KU -215||-126|
|UCLA vs. Butler||UCLA -175||-126|
|North Carolina vs. UCLA||UNC -165||-173|
|North Carolina vs. Kentucky||UNC -165||100|
|Kentucky vs. Butler||KTY -175||-195|
|West Virginia vs. Xavier||WVU -240||-331|
|Arizona vs. West Virginia||AZ -150||164|
|Gonzaga vs. Xavier||Zags -325||-599|
|Gonzaga vs. Arizona||Zags -145||-242|