The Sweet 16 hasn’t even tipped yet but we can lookahead to potential Elite Eight matchups. 5Dimes has posted moneylines for every possible Elite Eight game. Which teams are the bookmakers undervaluing?

Yesterday we updated our Sweet 16 Power Rankings by simulating every team against all other remaining tournament squads. By converting the likelihood of a team winning against the other Sweet 16 teams we can come up with a projected moneyline for potential Elite Eight matchups.

The oddsmakers are undervaluing the winner of the Oregon-Michigan game in the Midwest. The winner of the Kansas-Purdue matchup is favored over both the Ducks and Wolverines. Our simulations agree that the Jayhawks-Boilermakers should be favored but the lines are high and we expect the contests to be closer than the odds suggest.

North Carolina is a solid -165 favorite against Kentucky in a potential South region final. The implied odds suggest the Tar Heels would win the game more than 60% of the time. According to 10,000 simulations the matchup is a 50/50 proposition.

Arizona is getting the respect of a 2-seed but according to our numbers the Wildcats are overvalued. Arizona is favored against West Virginia but if we were setting the line Press Virginia would be a sizeable favorite. Against the Zags, Arizona would be an even bigger underdog.


No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 11 Xavier

There is a Pro System pick for this game that is 95-63 (60%) ATS

Which team should you bet?


Potential Elite Eight matchups and odds

Potential Elite Eight5Dimes FavoriteBetLabs Converted Odds
Wisconsin vs. South CarolinaWIS -150-134
Wisconsin vs. BaylorWIS -115102
Florida vs. South CarolinaFL -185-242
Florida vs. BaylorFL -135-126
Purdue vs. MichiganPUR -135-126
Purdue vs. OregonPUR -140-101
Kansas vs. MichiganKU -225-173
Kansas vs. OregonKU -215-126
UCLA vs. ButlerUCLA -175-126
North Carolina vs. UCLAUNC -165-173
North Carolina vs. KentuckyUNC -165100
Kentucky vs. ButlerKTY -175-195
West Virginia vs. XavierWVU -240-331
Arizona vs. West VirginiaAZ -150164
Gonzaga vs. XavierZags -325-599
Gonzaga vs. ArizonaZags -145-242