Philadelphia’s nine-game winning streak ended unceremoniously with a 24-10 loss to Seattle on Sunday night. The Seahawks were the Eagles biggest challenge to date and the team faltered. It is easy to understand why Doug Pederson’s team lost: turnovers (including a fumble in the red zone) and penalties.
Fans in Philadelphia might be worried but there is no reason to fret about the Eagles. Carson Wentz & Co. are still 10-2, they are just one win away from capturing the NFC East title and are locks to make the playoffs.
Plus, despite trailing Minnesota for the 1-seed in the NFC, thanks to a tiebreaker based on best winning percentage in common games, Philadelphia (43.2%) is the most likely team to get home field advantage in the conference according to our simulations. The Eagles (tied first in scoring and 6th in points per game allowed) have a 31.9% (best in NFC) chance to make the Super Bowl and a 17.4% chance to win the title (2nd to Patriots, 25.1%).
The oddsmakers adjusted Philly’s Super Bowl odds from +400 to +600 (Westgate) after the team’s Week 13 loss. That is an overreaction. At +600, 14.3% implied probability of winning, there is value betting the Eagles to win the championship.
Here is everything else you need to know after Week 13. Our projections are based on 10,000 simulations of the 2017-18 season using player and team statistics adjusted for strength of schedule.
Tennessee Titans (+18.8% increase in playoff probability): Tennessee has won six of their last seven games including two in a row against AFC South rivals. The Titans are a below average team (22nd in DVOA) but with eight wins they are also playoff bound.
Seattle Seahawks (+18.5% increase in playoff probability): Seattle’s win over Philadelphia not only showed they can beat the league’s best but kept them within arm’s length of the Rams in the NFC West and ahead of the pack in the Wild Card race.
Atlanta Falcons (-19.1% decrease in playoff probability): The Falcons playoff hopes took a hit with a 14-9 loss to the Vikings at home but Atlanta has a chance to redeem itself with two of its next three games coming against the Saints and closing the season at home against the Panthers.
Buffalo Bills (-17.9% decrease in playoff probability): Buffalo is who we thought they were: an average team that can’t beat the Patriots. The Bills will likely need to win out to make the playoffs.
Most likely AFC Playoff teams:
- Patriots 100.0%
- Steelers 100%
- Jaguars 99.6%
- Titans 90.8%
- Ravens 90.2%
- Chiefs 59.5%
Most likely NFC Playoff teams:
- Eagles 100.0%
- Vikings 100.0%
- Saints 96.8%
- Rams 96.8%
- Seahawks 95.7%
- Panthers 61.4%
The Patriots, Steelers, Eagles and Vikings have all but won their divisions. Each team has better than a 95% chance of punching a playoff ticket. The Saints aren’t far behind with an 84.0% chance of winning the NFC South for the first time since 2011.
Three divisions are up for grabs. We give the Jags a 74.3% chance to upend the Titans (25.7%) in the AFC South. The Chiefs, despite losing four in a row and six of their last seven, have a 57.0% chance to win the AFC West (Chargers 32.7%, Raiders 10.3%). The NFC West will be decided in a Week 15 showdown between the Seahawks and Rams. The game is played in Seattle, Russell Wilson and crew have a 53.9% chance to win the division.
Below are the updated playoff probabilities for every NFL team.
|Team||Division Winner %||Make Playoffs %||Win Super Bowl %|
|New England Patriots||100||100||25.1|
|New Orleans Saints||84||96.8||6.4|
|Los Angeles Rams||46.1||96.8||6.1|
|Kansas City Chiefs||57||59.5||1.3|
|Los Angeles Chargers||32.7||35||1|
|Green Bay Packers||0.1||6.6||0|
|New York Jets||0||0.7||0|
|New York Giants||0||0||0|
|San Francisco 49ers||0||0||0|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||0||0||0|