What team has been upset the most in the NCAA tournament since 1985? If you guessed Duke, you’re correct. According to the Washington Post, the Blue Devils have lost 20 games they were expected to win by seeding in the Big Dance (the most total upsets).

It appears that Coach K’s program consistently underperforms come tourney time. A trend that could continue in 2017-18 as Duke is the most overrated team in college basketball.

We are not a bunch of Duke haters at the Action Network (even though Grayson Allen has a punchable face). Our opinions are built on math and our model says the oddsmakers are too high on the Dukies (+500).

The unanimous choice for No. 1 in the AP poll has averaged 90.7 points per game during their 9-0 start and are tops in offensive efficiency according to KenPom. Like in year’s past, Duke’s weakness is on the other end of the court. The Blue Devils have been generous defenders allowing 74.0 points per game (tied 213th in the nation). The team is 46th in defensive efficiency and has only ranked in the top 25 once since 2012 (in 2015 when the program won its fifth title).

At +500 odds (BetOnline), Duke would need to win the tournament 16.7% (which is 100/(500 + 100) of the time. According to our simulations, using Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology, there is a 7.2% probability of Coach K getting a sixth ring. That 9.5% gap between implied probability and the team’s actual win rate is the largest in basketball, which makes Duke the most overrated team in the country.

Of course, that 7.2% chance is the 5th best odds to cut down the nets. Duke has lost at least two games in a row in each of the last three seasons. If Marvin Bagley, Grayson Allen and the rest of the Coach K’s bunch hit a skid during the season, the Blue Devils odds will rise and gamblers could find value betting one of the most overrated teams in college basketball.

If Duke doesn’t have value, which teams do? Glad you asked, here are the three most mispriced teams in college basketball.

Kansas Jayhawks

Current odds: +1400, Implied Probability: 6.7%

KU wins the tournament 15.8% of the time

Bill Self’s team is the only squad in the country that ranks in the top 5 in KenPom’s offensive and defensive efficiency. The Jayhawks’ balance has allowed them to blowout the also-runs of college basketball (routed Toledo 96-58) and beat the blue bloods (defeated Kentucky 65-61). Kansas is projected to be a No. 1 seed in the tournament and will be a favorite to reach the Final Four for the first time since 2012.

Virginia Cavaliers

Current odds: +5000, Implied Probability: 2.0%

UVA wins the tournament 7.8% of the time

If you buy the “defense wins championships” narrative you’ll want a piece of the Hoos. UVA plays stifling defense and has allowed the fewest points per game (50.1) in the nation. Tony Bennett’s 18th-ranked Cavs are also first in defensive efficiency. No one will want to play Virginia come March.

Villanova Wildcats

Current odds: +1400, Implied Probability: 6.7%

Nova wins the tournament 11.7% of the time

We called out Villanova as a value bet before the season began. If you missed the boat at +1850 it’s not too late to jump on-board. Nova, along with KU, are the only programs that rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Jay Wright’s team has a chance to be the last unbeaten with its toughest nonconference game coming against Gonzaga in New York City and not facing Providence, Xavier, Creighton or Seton Hall on the road until February. This might be the last opportunity to buy Nova before the odds drop below +1000.

Other teams with value: Cincinnati +2000, West Virginia +5000, Texas Tech +15000

Below is each team with at least a 1-in-1000 chance of cutting down the nets according to our simulations.

TeamOdds (BetOnline)Projected Chance (%)
Kansas+140015.8
Villanova+140011.7
Michigan State+60010.6
Virginia+50007.8
Duke+5007.2
Wichita State+16004.9
Cincinnati+20004.9
Texas A&M+18004.6
North Carolina+20004.4
Florida+16004.1
Kentucky+14002.7
Purdue+33002.7
West Virginia+50002.6
Notre Dame+28002.3
Xavier+33001.9
Miami Florida+50001.7
Gonzaga+33001.5
Louisville+33001.2
Texas Tech+150001.1
USC+25000.9
Arizona+10000.8
Minnesota+50000.6
Baylor+66000.6
Seton Hall+80000.6
Arkansas+80000.4
Texas+50000.3
Oklahoma+80000.3
TCU+80000.3
SMU+125000.3
Alabama+50000.2
Creighton+66000.2
Florida State+125000.2
Tennessee+125000.2
Saint Marys CA+66000.1
Maryland+80000.1
Michigan+80000.1
Nevada+100000.1
Virginia Tech+125000.1
Providence+200000.1
Rhode Island+250000.1