The Seahawks are 6-point underdogs at home against the Eagles on Sunday night. This will be just the fourth game in the Russell Wilson era where Seattle is getting points when playing in front of fans in CenturyLink Field.

The lookahead line posted by CG Technology this summer was Seattle -7. Why the big line move when Pete Carroll’s team is 7-4?

Public perception is everything. Philly (10-1) comes to town with the best record in football and is 1B to the Patriots 1A in our Power Rankings. If the playoffs started today, the Seahawks run of five straight postseason appearances would be snapped. Seattle has also fallen to 13th in our ranking thanks to key injuries in the secondary (Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor).

Perhaps most importantly, Carson Wentz has been a covering machine. The Eagles are the most profitable team ATS (9-2) in 2017, covering in eight straight games. Seattle is just 1-4 ATS at home and bettors want no part of the home dog.

At the time of publication, 72% of spread tickets and 79% of spread dollars are on the Eagles. This steady pounding by recreational bettors has moved the opening line from -3 to -6 at CRIS. 5Dimes even has Philadelphia listed as 7-point favorites.

Casual bettors are off the Seahawks but Seattle is flirting with the betting-against-the-public sweet spot. Since 2003, all home underdogs of 6 or more points have gone 181-152-6 (54.4%) ATS. The less public support these teams receive the more contrarian bettors profit.

Spread Ticket %ATS RecordROI
All games181-152-6+4.8%

The sweet spot is home dogs getting 6 or more points with less than 25% of spread tickets: 91-62-3 (59.5%) ATS. Only 28% of spread bets are on the Seahawks. Will Russell Wilson and the 12th Man dip below the 25% threshold? Let’s hope but Seattle is already undervalued as a big home dog.

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