The Chicago Bulls have ruled Rajon Rondo out indefinitely with a fractured right thumb. The Boston Celtics immediately went from 1.5 point underdogs to 2 point road favorites in Game 3. Should you bet the Celtics even though the line has already moved?
In sports betting, timing is key. To be a long-term winner you need to get the best of the betting line. Chasing line moves is a good way to lose your money.
Since 2005, in the NBA playoffs when a line moves by 3 or more points the team that saw its line get worse (Celtics +1.5 to -2) went 18-26 against-the-spread.
In the last two years, those same teams are just 4-11 ATS. The most recent example is the Blazers in Game 2 against the Warriors. Portland opened as 15 point underdogs but when Kevin Durant was ruled out the line dropped to 11.5. The Warriors rolled even without Durant in the lineup.
It is too late to take advantage of the line movement in the Celtics game. If you feel like Boston is still the right side feel free to wager on them. Just know you’ve already lost out on most of the value.