Don’t Bet the Heisman

Don’t Bet the Heisman

Deshaun Watson, Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette are the preseason favorites to win the Heisman Trophy. Recent history suggests they won’t be a Heisman finalist, let alone the actual winner.

In the last five years, there have been 48 players that began the season with +2000 or better odds to win the Heisman per SportsOddsHistory. Of this group, just 15 finished in the top 10 in voting. Only seven of the preseason favorites were invited to New York for the Heisman ceremony. And just one player among the 48 possible candidates actually won the award.

Preseason Favorites

  • Only 31.3% finish in the top 10
  • Just 14.6% are Heisman finalist
  • 1 – number of preseason favorites to win Heisman

Don’t bet on the Heisman

Are you still considering placing a bet? Not only is it nearly impossible to predict which player will win the Heisman but the odds heavily favor the house. Vegas has baked 23.2% of juice into the Heisman lines this year. Another reason this is a bad bet, it ties up a portion of your bankroll for the entire college football season.

You’re a grown-up, you can make your own decisions. If you do bet the Heisman, just know the odds aren’t in your favor.

Heisman History

YearPlayerOddsFinish in VotingFinalist?
2015Trevone Boykin+62510
Ezekiel Elliot+9258
Nick Chubb+1225
Leonard Fournette+13006
Cody Kessler+1400
JT Barrett+1500
Cardale Jones+1900
Seth Russell+2000
Deshaun Watson+20003Yes
Dak Prescott+2000
2014Marcus Mariota+4251Yes
Jameis Winston+5006
Bryce Petty+120010
Brett Hundley+1200
Todd Gurley+1400
TJ Yeldon+1600
Mevlin Gordon+18002Yes
Everett Golson+2000
2013Braxton Miller+3009
Jadeveon Clowney+500
Johnny Manziel+6005Yes
AJ McCarron+8002Yes
Marcus Mariota+1000
Teddy Bridgewater+1000
Tajh Boyd+1200
DeAnthony Thomas+1400
Aaron Murray+1500
TJ Yeldon+1800
2012Matt Barkley+300
Montee Ball+400
Denard Robinson+500
Landry Jones+600
Geno Smith+800
Aaron Murray+1000
EJ Manuel+1000
Marcus Lattimore+1000
AJ McCarron+2000
Rex Burkhead+2000
Sammy Watkins+2000
2011Andrew Luck+3252Yes
Landry Jones+600
Denard Robinson+700
LaMichael James+70010
Marcus Lattimore+700
Kellen Moore+10008
Trent Richardson+12003Yes
Justin Blackmon+1600
Ryan Broyles+1600

©2016 Sports Insights Inc.

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