Knowing when not to bet is often just as important as knowing when to bet. March Madness is a month away and you are probably looking for teams offering value to cut down the nets. Gonzaga 8/1, Louisville, 18/1 and Virginia 20/1 are all worth a wager but there are a few other top teams that you should avoid.
To determine if a team doesn’t have value we look at what their current odds are to win the NCAA championship at 5Dimes and compare that to our projected odds they cut down the nets. For example, Kentucky has 12/1 odds, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Wildcats they would need to win it all 7.7% (which is 1/(12+1)) of the time. Coach Calipari’s crew is projected to win March Madness 6.6% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at 12/1 odds.
Don’t bet these teams to win March Madness.
Current odds: 8/1, Implied Probability: 11.1%
Bruins wins the tournament 1.2% of the time
The team in Westwood is one of the most offensively talented squads in the country. Lonzo Ball and TJ Leaf have the Bruins in the top 5 in offensive efficiency, yet for as good as UCLA is on offensive end of the court, they are equally as bad defensively. Per KenPom, the Bruins rank 115th in adjusted defensive efficiency. UCLA has the same odds as Gonzaga to win the tournament but unlike the Zags there is no value betting on the Blue and Gold.
Current odds: 10/1, Implied Probability: 9.1%
KU wins the tournament 3.9% of the time
Kansas has won 12 straight Big 12 regular season titles. Since 2007 the Jayhawks have been a No. 1 or No. 2 seed each season except for one. During Bill Self’s tenure, the team has been in two title games and won one championship. KU is good but they have also been knocked out of the tournament in the first weekend five times in the last 12 years. Kansas is clearly one of the best teams in the country once again this season but the odds reflect this information, you would be buying at a bad number if you bet the Jayhawks.
Duke Blue Devils
Current odds: 12/1, Implied Probability: 7.7%
Dukies win the tournament 1.2% of the time
There have been a lot of distractions for the preseason favorites. The team’s star freshmen have been injured, Coach K has missed time due to back surgery, when Krzyzewski has been on the sideline he banned the team from the locker room and then there is Grayson Allen’s bad habit of tripping opponents. The Blue Devils have the talent to right the ship but at 12/1 odds there is no value backing the Dukies.
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Below is each team with at least a 1-in-1000 chance of cutting down the nets.
|Team||Odds||Implied Chance||Proj. Chance|
|Saint Marys CA||80/1||1.2||1.4|