An undefeated season, a Big Ten title and a College Football Playoff National Championship were all possible for Penn State just two weeks ago. With less than six minutes to play and the Lions leading Ohio State 38-27 in Week 9, James Franklin’s team looked like the class of the Big Ten. A collapse against the Buckeyes and an upset in East Lansing have all but ended the Nittany Lions’ playoff hopes.
PSU will attempt to right the ship at home against Rutgers following two straight losses. The Scarlet Knights look like easy marks with only three wins against FBS opponents and ranking 86th in Football Outsiders college football efficiency rating.
Oddsmakers like the Lions’ chances at home. BetOnline opened Penn State as a 28-point favorite. Despite the brutal losses, PSU is still clearly one of the best teams in the country ranking No. 16 in the latest AP Top 25 poll. Recreational bettors will expect a bounce back but don’t bet Penn State in Week 11.
It’s Christmas come early. In a rare betting opportunity, contrarian gamblers will have a chance to fade a ranked team on a losing streak.
Since 2005, betting against Top 25 teams that have lost two straight games has gone 31-18-1 (63.3%) ATS.
Penn State isn’t likely to lose three in a row. Teams favored by four or more touchdowns have gone 363-8 (97.8%) straight-up in the regular season. Covering the spread is a different story and this historical trend points to fading the Lions.
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