Aaron Judge hit his 25th home run of the season Thursday against the Angels. The young slugger is just the third rookie in MLB history to hit 25 dingers in 68 or fewer games. Judge is on pace for 58 homers. He is the favorite (3/2) but you shouldn’t bet him to win the home run crown.
For starters, while Judge is off to a blistering pace his lead isn’t all that great. There are 19 players within 7 home runs of him. Then consider that in the last ten years three other players reached 25 long balls in as few games: Raul Ibanez in 2009, Jose Abreu in 2014 and Giancarlo Stanton in 2015 (per Elias Sports Bureau). Ibanez finished with 34 home runs, just nine more, Abreu got to 36 and Stanton whacked two more before suffering a season-ending injury. It is hard to maintain a 50+ home run pace over the course of a season. Finally, all the value has been bet out of Judge. You could have gotten the Yankee powerhouse at 100/1 before the season started or even at 5/1 back in May.
Judge looks unstoppable right now but there are signs pitchers are beginning to figure him out. His strikeout rate is starting to climb. He has whiffed or been caught looking 89 times (tied 6th most in baseball). The Bronx Bomber is on pace for more than 200 strikeouts.
Another rookie whose odds have skyrocketed is Cody Bellinger. He was off the board in May but is now the second favorite at 6/1. The Dodgers’ hitter blasted 10 home runs in 10 games at one point and has 22 homers in just 54 games.
Logan Morrison (14/1), George Springer (16/1) and Scott Schebler (22/1) are among the favorites and were also off the board back in May. You have already missed the chance to get these players at good odds. If you are looking for a hitter with long odds that could provide value Paul Goldschmidt (50/1) is an option. The Dbacks first baseman has 18 home runs and has twice topped 30 homers in a season.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies
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2017 Home Run Leader Odds (BetOnline)
|Player||BetOnline (6/23)||Westgate (5/8)|