Does Rose Make Knicks Attractive?

NBA free-agency starts Friday but the Kevin Durant sweepstakes have already begun. Six teams have free-agency meetings set with Durant. The Oklahoma City Thunder, Golden State Warriors, San Antonio Spurs, Boston Celtics, Los Angeles Clippers and Miami Heat will get face-to-face recruiting opportunities.

Not included on that list are the Knicks, though that might change. Durant has been in New York for the last week leading up to the announcement of USA Basketball’s 12-man Olympic team. Knicks All-Star Carmelo Anthony told the press that he is recruiting Durant. USA Today reported that the trade for Derrick Rose has led the marquee free agent to reconsider the Knicks?

Does Derrick Rose really make the Knicks more attractive?

There a numerous ways to grade the acquisition of Rose but one advanced metric doesn’t think much of the former league MVP. Box Plus/Minus estimates the points per 100 possessions a player contributed above a league-average player, translated to an average team. For reference, Stephen Curry had a BPM of 12.5 – best in the Association. League average is 0.0, +5 would equate to All-NBA level and -2 would be replacement level.

How did Rose perform last season? Not great according to BPM.

PlayerOFF +/-DEF +/-Total +/-
Derrick Rose-1.2-2.1-3.3

The former Bulls star was below replacement level. Lucky for Rose his subpar play was better than the combination of point guards the Knicks started.

PlayerOFF +/-DEF +/-Total +/-
Jose Calderon0.5-0.6-0.1
Jerian Grant-2.3-1.1-3.4

Combined, Calderon and Grant were slightly worse than Rose by BPM last season but not by much.

Carmelo thinks that adding Rose makes the Knicks more attractive. He would be right if it were the Rose from 2010-11.

PlayerOFF +/-DEF +/-Total +/-
Derrick Rose5.80.15.9

By name, Rose is a star but the underlying statistics paint him as a replacement level player. While the Knicks are optimistic that they’ll ultimately get a sit down, banking on the Rose acquisition to make them more attractive in free agency is foolish. Durant wants to win; New York went 32-50 last season, which means we likely won’t see the Thunder star donning a Knicks jersey anytime soon.





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