The Los Angeles Dodgers beat the Houston Astros 3-1 on Tuesday to force a Game 7. The Fall Classic is headed for a winner-take-all showdown. LA opened as -110 favorites but have been bet up to -162 behind 61% of moneyline bets and 64% of moneyline dollars.
Home favorites in the MLB playoffs have the worst winning percentage of the major sports leagues in the postseason.
|Home||87-53 (62.1%)||701-389 (64.3%)||579-461 (55.7%)||245-190 (56.3%)|
|Favorite||92-47 (66.2%)||751-339 (68.9%)||623-417 (59.9%)||243-192 (55.9%)|
|Home Favorite||78-39 (66.7%)||615-253 (70.9%)||504-342 (59.6%)||188-135 (58.2%)|
The Dodgers are expected to win but home favorites in baseball have a 188-135 (58.2%) record straight-up, in the NBA home favorites win at a much higher rate going 615-253 (70.9%). If it were the Lakers instead of the Dodgers, Los Angeles would have a better shot at winning a title.
Do-or-die games are hard to predict. Including Wild Card games since 2005, favorites are 20-17 straight-up and home teams have gone 16-21. Think momentum exists? The team that won the previous game, looking at only the Division Round and later, has a 13-12 record.
Fading the public is a profitable strategy in the postseason. Teams getting 50% or less of moneyline bets are 19-19, +3.21 units in winner-take-all games.
|50% of less of ML bets||19-19||3.21|
|Won previous game||13-12||0.2|
The screenshot above, available to Sports Insights subscribers, shows the forecast for tonight’s game. Average winds speeds will be in the range of 5-7 MPH blowing out to center field. Using the Bet Labs database, when the wind is blowing out in the playoffs the Over is 41-26, +14.13 units.
However, Stuckey, an analyst at Sports Action, noted in the Action Network Slack channel that in the previous 38 World Series Game 7s the average runs per game were almost a full run less than in Games 1-6. There has also been early sharp action on the Under, triggering Reverse Line Movement bet signals at Sports Insights.
The World Series has been thrilling, here’s hoping for another classic between the Dodgers and Astros in the season’s ultimate game.
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