Pour one out for Deshaun Watson fantasy owners. The sensational rookie quarterback tore his ACL in practice on Thursday and will have season-ending surgery. With Watson running the show the Texans were the highest scoring team in the NFL (30.7 points per game).

According to the oddsmakers, Watson is worth nearly a touchdown to the spread. Tom Savage is a massive downgrade that limits the fantasy upside for guys like DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. It is incredibly difficult, if not impossible, to replace a singular talent like Watson but the truth is his injury doesn’t impact the playoff picture.

Here is a snapshot of the AFC playoffs before and after Watson’s injury based on 10,000 simulations.

TeamMake Playoffs (Before Injury)Make Playoffs (After Injury)
Steelers96.8%97.7%
Chiefs90.5%95.1%
Patriots94.9%94.5%
Jaguars75.0%80.6%
Bills67.7%68.9%
Ravens50.5%55.9%
Titans38.8%44.0%
Texans33.7%14.4%
Broncos18.5%13.2%
Bengals11.3%12.1%
Dolphins8.0%8.2%
Raiders6.9%7.4%
Chargers6.6%6.9%
Jets0.8%0.8%
Colts0.2%0.4%
Browns0.0%0.0%

The most likely playoff remains unchanged. Houston was on the outside looking in before losing their starter. The Texans’ playoff probability has now dropped from 33.7% to 14.4%. Jacksonville is the big winner. The Jags were the favorite to win the AFC South before Watson’s knee betrayed him. Now the Jaguars, No. 1 in defensive DVOA and 6th in offensive rushing efficiency, have a 65.4% chance to win the division for the first time, up from 58.3%.

Watson is fun to watch and it can be difficult to believe that an injury to a fantasy stud won’t impact the playoffs but that’s the truth. Even with the high-powered offense Houston was a below .500 team. The Texans have scored 30 or more points five times this season and went 2-3 in those games. The defense, crippled by injuries, has allowed 26.9 points per game (29th in the NFL).

The Texans were underdogs to make the playoffs before, without Watson their longshots.