How Do We Measure Watson’s Loss?
It’s rare that an athlete’s season-ending injury makes all of fandom collectively sigh, but that’s what happened with Watson. Not just because he was having such a transcendent and record-setting season as a rookie QB, but because he is so fun to watch. Whether you are a Texans fan or not, your Red Zone Sunday is diminished. After the initial disappointment, and as cold and calculating as it is, the collective second instinct of everyone at The Action Network when the Watson news broke was: What’s it mean for betting market? Dan McGuire did great work putting together a piece quickly after news broke. For a moment the Colts-Texans game was taken off the board, when Houston was a 13-point favorite. When it came back, the line had been adjusted to Houston minus-6.5, which the wiseguys took. But the public has flipped its allegiance. While 71% of the bets were on Houston as nearly a two-touchdown favorite before Watson went down, more than half of the total tickets now are on the Colts.
My fourth-grade teacher, Mr. Paulsen, liked to play with our heads when he had to tell us the same instructions over and over. He’d stand on a chair and, in a loud voice, say, “I hate to repeat myself, I hate to repeat myself, I hate to repeat myself.” At the risk of sounding like Mr. Paulsen, I will remind you that the single biggest factor in creating a point spread is public perception. What did the public last see and what does it believe? That is applicable week-to-week, but also relevant as we consider the second half of the season. John Ewing wrote a really smart pieceexamining whether or not there is a correlation between a NFL team’s first-half ATS performance and its second. Spoiler alert: There’s not. So don’t overlook the Bucs (1-5-1 ATS) as 6.5-point dogs against New Orleans (5-2 ATS) this weekend.
The Biggest Winners Of Them All
The Nevada Gaming Control Board released its September figures this past month. Guess what? The books won! Again! Yeaaaaaaaa, books. We are so happy for you and your gluttonous ways. Not only that, they won a record $44M. Congrats on your genius.
Doug Baldwin Makes His Case
Actually, Baldwin makes his case every week. He is sneakily physical and deceptively athletic and, frankly, just plain good. Russell Wilson knows this. It’s no coincidence that the Seahawks’ offense has started cranking since Baldwin’s targets increased. As Ian Hartitz points out, since the bye two weeks ago he’s gone from being targeted 7.8 times per game to 11.5. Baldwin has also, as Ian Hartitz writes, “balled out” at home, where he happens to be playing this weekend and will likely be lined up against Kendall Fuller, who gives up the most yards per coverage snap among the Skins’ top DBs.
PROP OF THE DAY
The Great Crypto Rush
We all love crypto (some of The Action Network folks are literally banking on it). So this prop from BetOnline piqued our interest: Will bitcoin price reach $10,000 in 2017? Yes plus-200; No minus-260.
Sharps Doin’ Sharp Things
You wouldn’t think about a service academy total. Why would you when VaTech-Miami is so appetizing? But the pros look for these opportunities. And they’ve moved the over/under in Army-Air Force from 61 to 55.5 at Bookmaker. In fact, as PJ Walsh points out, 22 of the 37 service academy games since 2005 have closed with a lower total than its opening number.
Originally posted on The Action Network – Subscribe to the newsletter!