The Miami Dolphins signed Jay Cutler to a one-year deal worth $10 million to replace injured starter Ryan Tannehill. Can the former Bear save the Dolphins’ season?

The case for the 34-year old quarterback leading Miami back to playoffs hinges on Adam Gase. Back in 2015, Cutler, working with Gase as Chicago’s offensive coordinator, had one of his best seasons posting a career high in passer rating (3,659 yards and 21 touchdowns). The thinking goes, with a month before the team’s first game there is enough time for Gase to get Cutler up to speed.

However, Cutler had shoulder surgery in December and spent the offseason preparing for a television career. He also needs to learn the play book and develop chemistry with his teammates. What is the most likely outcome for Miami?

We ran 10,000 simulations of the Dolphins season with Cutler starting at quarterback.

Playoff Probability12.9%14.3%
Win Super Bowl0.5%0.5%

Whether Tannehill or Cutler starters, the Dolphins are projected to win less than 7 games. A step back for a team that had 10 victories a season ago. Miami is unlikely to make the playoffs and a longshot to win the Super Bowl.

By nearly every metric, Tannehill and Cutler were average to replacement level quarterbacks last season. Miami was already a candidate for regression based on point differential and record in one score games. Cutler is a big-name quarterback but he won’t lead the Dolphins to the playoffs.

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