At the All-Star break the Cubs were two games under .500. The defending champions have begun the second half on a tear winning 13 of 16 games and taking a 2.5 game lead in the NL Central. The Cubbies appear to be over their World Series hangover, is it time to bet them to repeat?
Chicago Cubs vs. the Field to win World Series
- Cubs +720
- Field -1125
Chicago made winning moves before the trade deadline to improve their chances of winning another championship. The team dealt for pitcher Justin Wilson and catcher Alex Avila but the biggest move was giving up top prospects for Jose Quintana.
The Cubbies chances of winning the division have improved dramatically in the last few weeks. Chicago now has a 79.6% chance of finishing atop the NL Central according to Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs gives the team an 89.1% chance. Can the Cubbies win the World Series?
The consensus rankings from the two sites give the Cubs an 11.0% chance of repeating. Chicago is +720 to win the World Series, implied odds of 12.2%. There is no value in placing a bet on the Cubbies even though they have been playing better. In fact, there isn’t value betting on the Field either. At -1125 odds, the bookmakers have juiced both sides enough to eliminate all value.
That doesn’t mean there isn’t a bet to be placed. If we look at each team’s chance to win the World Series at 5Dimes one stands out above the rest.
The Cleveland Indians (+750) have consensus odds to win the World Series of 16.1%, third best in baseball. The implied probability that the team wins is 11.8%, meaning there is value on Cleveland. The Tribe’s pitching staff is 2nd in the majors in WAR and the offense is sixth.
No other team, according to the consensus results from the simulations at Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs has any value at the current odds. That includes the Dodgers who are the betting favorites (+275) and the simulations pick (21.2%).
2017 World Series Odds (5Dimes)
|Los Angeles Dodgers||+275||23.9||18.4||21.2|
|New York Yankees||+1100||9.5||6||7.8|
|Boston Red Sox||+830||3.9||11.2||7.6|
|Kansas City Royals||+2500||1.1||1.4||1.3|
|St. Louis Cardinals||+6600||0.9||1.2||1.1|
|Tampa Bay Rays||+6600||0.9||1||0.95|
|Los Angeles Angels||+12500||0.1||0.2||0.2|
|Toronto Blue Jays||+12500||0||0.2||0.1|
|New York Mets||+35000||0||0.1||0.05|
|Chicago White Sox||+350000||0||0||0|
|San Francisco Giants||+500000||0||0||0|
|San Diego Padres||+500000||0||0||0|