Which team should you bet to win the 2017 Stanley Cup? To answer that question we crowdsourced six projection systems to create a consensus champion. With the puck dropping on the NHL Playoffs Wednesday, these are the teams to wager on.
To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to the hoist the Cup at 5Dimes and compare that to the consensus projections they win the championship. For example, Pittsburgh, the defending champions, is +850, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Penguins they would need to win it all 10.6% (which is 100/(850+100)) of the time. The Pens are projected to win the Stanley Cup 8.1% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +850 odds.
Here are a few teams with value.
Current odds: +430, Implied Probability: 18.9%
Caps win the Cup 23.0% of the time
The Capitals were the best team in hockey for a second straight year winning the President’s Trophy. Washington was second in goals per game, first in goals against per game, third on the power play and sixth on the penalty kill. The consensus simulations all agree, the Caps are the most likely team to hoist the Cup.
Current odds: +2500, Implied Probability: 3.8%
Bruins win the Cup 6.0% of the time
This is the only longshot with value to win the Stanley Cup. Even though Boston failed to make the playoffs the previous two years this is a team with postseason experience. From an advanced statistical measure the Bruins rank highly in Corsi and Fenwick (measures of shot attempt differential while at full strength). For Boston to go deep in the playoffs Brad Marchand will need to continue his scoring ways while Tuukka Rask will remains a force between the pipes.
2017 NHL Playoffs
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Current odds: +875, Implied Probability: 10.3%
Wild win the Cup 11.1% of the time
Minnesota has a ton of offensive talent. Twelve players had at least ten scores, eight players scored 15 or more goals and five skaters that were 20-goal scorers. Defensively the team ranks in the top 10 in goals against and penalty kill and despite a bad March Devan Dubnyk is still a contender for the Vezina Trophy.
Crowdsourced Stanley Cup Value Bets
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