The second round of the NHL Playoffs is set. Only eight teams remain in the hunt for the Stanley Cup. Which team should you bet to win it all?
To answer that question we crowdsourced projections from four different simulations to create a consensus estimate on the most likely teams to hoist the Cup.
To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win at 5Dimes and compare that to the crowdsourced projections they capture the championship. For example, Pittsburgh, the defending champions, is +430, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Penguins they would need to win it all 18.9% (which is 100/(430+100)) of the time. The Pens are projected to win the Stanley Cup 14.0% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +430 odds.
Here are a few teams with value.
Current odds: +380, Implied Probability: 20.8%
Caps win the Cup 27.8% of the time
The team’s first round series against the Leafs was closer than many expected yet the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Capitals prevailed. Now Washington will face off against its playoff nemesis in Pittsburgh. The Caps were the best team in hockey all year and the simulations agree that Alex Ovechkin and Washington should be the favorites to win it all. Luckily for bettors there is still value betting the most likely champion.
New York Rangers
Current odds: +830, Implied Probability: 10.8%
Rangers win the Cup 10.9% of the time
Rangers have advanced to the second round for the fifth time in six years. New York got balanced scoring in their first round series with eight players netting a goal and 18 getting at least a point. This is a deep team with a four-line forward rotation among the best in the NHL. Of course Henrik Lundqvist can still shutdown a game or a series in the net. You are essentially getting even money on this bet but the Rangers are the only longshot with a chance.
Betting Against the Public
This Pro System is +68.38 units all-time
Crowdsourced Stanley Cup Value Bets
The consensus projection was created by averaging the simulations from Playoff Status, MoneyPuck, NumberFire and PredictionMachine.
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