There are 16 teams with the same goal, to win the NBA championship. The playoffs start Saturday, which squads have value to win the title and hang a banner from the rafters? To answer that question we crowdsourced four projection systems to create the ultimate NBA Playoff projection.
To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the title at 5Dimes and compare that to the consensus projections they win the championship. For example, Golden State is -150, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Warriors they would need to win it all 60.0% (which is 150/(100+150)) of the time. The Dubs are projected to win the NBA championship 57.0% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at -150 odds.
Here are a few teams with value.
San Antonio Spurs
Current odds: +845, Implied Probability: 10.6%
Spurs win the title 14.4% of the time
Golden State is the favorite, the Cavs are the defending champions and everyone seems to expect a rematch of last year’s Finals. Don’t sleep on the Spurs. Greg Popovich’s team is No. 1 in defensive efficiency and top ten in offensive efficiency. Kawhi Leonard, an MVP candidate, leads one of the deepest and most talented rosters in the league. No one is talking about the Spurs, which is great, bet them before people realize there is value.
Current odds: +3750, Implied Probability: 2.6%
Raptors win the title 4.6% of the time
Toronto posted a second straight 50-win season. DeMar DeRozan had a career year, Kyle Lowry is back and healthy and the team added Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker at the deadline. With the East up for grabs, the Raps could make a run to the title game. After that anything can happen.
Current odds: +2475, Implied Probability: 3.9%
Rockets win the title 5.0% of the time
The Rockets were one of the surprise teams of the 2016-17 season. Houston earned the No. 3 seed thanks to an MVP-caliber season from James Harden and an offense few teams could keep pace with. The Rockets live and die by the three. The team set a record for most 3-pointers attempted and made in a season. If they get hot from downtown Mike D’Antoni’s team can beat anyone.
Other teams with some value: Clippers +5000, Jazz +6600, Bucks +25000, Bulls +30000
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Crowdsourced NBA Championship Value Bets
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