The NFL announced last Friday that running back Ezekiel Elliott would be suspended for violating the league’s personal conduct policy. The six-game ban caused sportsbooks to suspend betting on the Dallas Cowboys futures.
Now that the betting markets have had a chance to analyze the impact of Zeke’s suspension how have the odds changed to win the NFC East?
NFC East Odds (BetOnline)
|Team||Odds (7/25)||Odds (8/14)|
The oddsmakers have flip flopped the Cowboys and Giants. New York is now the favorite to win the division. Is this an overreaction?
Yes, according to our simulations Dallas is still the most likely team to win the NFC East. The Cowboys had a 47.4% chance of repeating as division champs before the suspension, assuming Elliott misses the first six games of the season the team’s probability of winning the division is 46.3%.
Zeke is one of the most important non-quarterbacks in the league but he is only worth 0.5 a point on average to the spread. Dallas has a good young quarterback, an excellent line and a capable backup running back. Plus, their Week 1 matchup against the Giants is the only divisional game during the ban.
At +185 odds, the implied probability of Dallas winning the division is 35.1%. The simulations suggest the Cowboys are still a safe bet without Zeke. The Pro Bowl back plans to appeal his suspension, if it is overturned or reduced these are the best divisional odds you’ll get for Jerry Jones’ team.
Week 1: Cowboys vs. Giants
This Pro System is 63% ATS since 2009