After 14 weeks of football only two teams (Steelers and Eagles) have clinched a playoff berth. The Patriots and Vikings can punch their postseason tickets with wins in Week 15, for the rest of the league there is work to be done.
Earlier this week, BookMaker.eu was offering prop bets on contending teams to qualify for the playoffs. The odds are currently off the board, thanks to Aaron Rodgers’ return, but when they are reposted at what price should you bet a team like the Packers to reach the postseason?
Green Bay’s matchup with Carolina is the first game for which Rodgers is eligible to play after breaking his collarbone against Minnesota on Oct. 15. Brett Hundley did his job and kept the Cheeseheads in playoff contention by going 3-4 in seven starts. For the Packers to extend their playoff streak to nine straight years, the team will need to win out (Panthers, Vikings and Lions have combined 26-13 record) and get some help. According to the Bet Labs simulations, there is only a 6.3% chance it all goes right for Green Bay, even with the two-time MVP back.
Bookmaker initially offered the Pack at +1150 odds, 8.0% implied probability, to make the playoffs. With a 6.3% chance to get to the postseason there would be no value placing that bet. Fair odds, a price gamblers would feel comfortable betting, would be +1487. If you can find Green Bay at close to +1500 or better pull the trigger but oddsmakers know Rodgers will attract action and have no incentive to offer favorable odds.
Below is the projected chance for each team in playoff contention to reach the postseason and what “fair” odds would be to place a wager. If you bet any of these squads at worse odds, Cowboys +1500 instead of +3000 for example, you are getting the short end of the stick.
NFL Playoff Odds and Probabilities
|Team||Projected Chance (%)||Fair Betting Odds|