Cool temperatures are expected Thursday night when the Green Bay Packers host the Chicago Bears. It won’t be frigid by Lambeau Field standards, temperature at kickoff forecasted to be in the low 60s before dropping into the mid-50s later in the evening, but it will be a departure for both teams from recent games.

The Packers played Cincinnati in unseasonably warm weather on Sunday (average temperature during the game: 85 degrees), while the Bears beat the Steelers in warmer than normal (86 degrees) weather in Chicago.

What impact could the cooler temperatures have on the game?

Favorites on Thursday Night Football when the temperature is below 70 degrees during the game have covered the spread 59.3% of the time.

Those are positive results but all favorites in games played on Thursday night have gone 88-62 (58.7%) ATS regardless of temperature. It is difficult for NFL teams to prepare on short rest, which benefits the favorites, usually the more talented team with better depth.

Favorites on Thursday Night Football have been good bets, so too have the Packers at home in cooler weather. Currently, the average temperature forecasted for the game is 60 degrees.

Packers At Home

  • 61 degrees and warmer: 11-15 (42.3%) ATS
  • 60 degrees and cooler: 50-32 (61.0%) ATS

Cooler temperatures, the short week and being favored at home all point to betting Green Bay. At the time of publication over 70% of spread bets are on the Cheeseheads. Is that the right side?

Week 4: Packers vs. Bears

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