The NHL playoffs start Wednesday. Which team will win the Stanley Cup? We complied simulations from six different sites to create the ultimate consensus NHL Playoff projection.

Washington has home-ice throughout the playoffs and was the best team in the regular season (won President’s Trophy). The Capitals Stanley Cup probabilities range from 14.0% to 32.1% with an average of 23.0%. The Caps are the most likely team according to the simulations to win it all – this would be the franchises first Stanley Cup championship.

The oddsmakers have the Caps as the betting favorites (+430, 5Dimes) but the Blackhawks (+450) are just behind them. Chicago has a consensus projection of 7.0% to win the Cup. Despite being the second betting favorite, the Blackhawks have just the fourth-best projected chance.

The Wild might be a team people are sleeping on. Minnesota blew a chance to win its division by going 4-11-2 in March. Despite the late season swoon the team has the second best chance to win the Stanley Cup per the simulations. Minnesota, with Washington, are the only teams with double-digit chances of winning it all.

Hockey is notoriously unpredictable, this great news for the rest of the teams in the playoffs. There are 11 teams with at least a 1-in-20 chance of hoisting the Cup.


2017 NHL Playoffs

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Consensus Odds to win the Stanley Cup

Note: PS (Playoff Status), MP (MoneyPuck), HR (Hockey-Reference), SCS (SportsClubStats), NF (NumberFire), PM (PredictionMachine)

TeamPSMPHRSCSNFPMConsensus %
Capitals291416.632.121.824.723
Wild810.710.11411.1312.711.1
Penguins87.39.96.19.0988.1
Blackhawks1166.75.16.335.46.8
Blue Jackets82.410.38.26.984.36.7
Bruins312.83.63.44.618.36
Canadiens59.45.144.596.55.8
Oilers537.16.65.484.85.3
Ducks47.14.94.86.064.75.3
Sharks48.94.32.64.616.75.2
Rangers71.86.65.76.683.15.1
Blues34.53.81.94.0123.2
Predators14.73.92.33.253.83.2
Maple Leafs<14.431.11.482.32.5
Flames33.71.91.32.011.62.3
Senators21.52.20.81.891.31.6