The NHL playoffs start Wednesday. Which team will win the Stanley Cup? We complied simulations from six different sites to create the ultimate consensus NHL Playoff projection.
Washington has home-ice throughout the playoffs and was the best team in the regular season (won President’s Trophy). The Capitals Stanley Cup probabilities range from 14.0% to 32.1% with an average of 23.0%. The Caps are the most likely team according to the simulations to win it all – this would be the franchises first Stanley Cup championship.
The oddsmakers have the Caps as the betting favorites (+430, 5Dimes) but the Blackhawks (+450) are just behind them. Chicago has a consensus projection of 7.0% to win the Cup. Despite being the second betting favorite, the Blackhawks have just the fourth-best projected chance.
The Wild might be a team people are sleeping on. Minnesota blew a chance to win its division by going 4-11-2 in March. Despite the late season swoon the team has the second best chance to win the Stanley Cup per the simulations. Minnesota, with Washington, are the only teams with double-digit chances of winning it all.
Hockey is notoriously unpredictable, this great news for the rest of the teams in the playoffs. There are 11 teams with at least a 1-in-20 chance of hoisting the Cup.
2017 NHL Playoffs
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Consensus Odds to win the Stanley Cup
Note: PS (Playoff Status), MP (MoneyPuck), HR (Hockey-Reference), SCS (SportsClubStats), NF (NumberFire), PM (PredictionMachine)
| Team | PS | MP | HR | SCS | NF | PM | Consensus % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capitals | 29 | 14 | 16.6 | 32.1 | 21.8 | 24.7 | 23 |
| Wild | 8 | 10.7 | 10.1 | 14 | 11.13 | 12.7 | 11.1 |
| Penguins | 8 | 7.3 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 9.09 | 8 | 8.1 |
| Blackhawks | 11 | 6 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 6.33 | 5.4 | 6.8 |
| Blue Jackets | 8 | 2.4 | 10.3 | 8.2 | 6.98 | 4.3 | 6.7 |
| Bruins | 3 | 12.8 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 4.61 | 8.3 | 6 |
| Canadiens | 5 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 4 | 4.59 | 6.5 | 5.8 |
| Oilers | 5 | 3 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 5.48 | 4.8 | 5.3 |
| Ducks | 4 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 6.06 | 4.7 | 5.3 |
| Sharks | 4 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 4.61 | 6.7 | 5.2 |
| Rangers | 7 | 1.8 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 6.68 | 3.1 | 5.1 |
| Blues | 3 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 4.01 | 2 | 3.2 |
| Predators | 1 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 3.25 | 3.8 | 3.2 |
| Maple Leafs | <1 | 4.4 | 3 | 1.1 | 1.48 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| Flames | 3 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 2.01 | 1.6 | 2.3 |
| Senators | 2 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 1.89 | 1.3 | 1.6 |