The NBA playoffs start Saturday. Which team will win the championship? We complied simulations from four different sites to create the ultimate consensus NBA Playoff projection.

The Warriors are massive favorites to win the title. A year after blowing a 3-1 lead to the Cleveland Cavaliers, Golden State has an average projected chance of 57.0%. With Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green, if the Dubs don’t win the title it would be shocking.

The only other team with a double-digit chance of winning the championship is the Spurs. The 2-seed in the West, San Antonio has perhaps the best two-way player in the league (Kawhi Leonard) and the greatest coach (Greg Popovich).

Can LeBron make it seven straight trips to the finals? After a rough end to the season many doubt the Cavs have what it takes. The simulations though think Cleveland is the most likely team to emerge from the East but they don’t dominate the simulations like in years past.

After the Warriors, Spurs and Cavs there is a slew of talented teams with a puncher’s chance of winning it all. Combined the Rockets, Raptors, Celtics, Clippers, Wizards and Jazz have greater than a 20% chance of stealing the title.

Consensus Odds to win the NBA Championship

Note: FiveThirtyEight (538), PredictionMachine (PM), NumberFire (NF), ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI)

Team538PMNFBPIConsensus
Warriors59%57.6%39.3%71.9%57.0%
Spurs11%13.1%19.5%14%14.4%
Cavaliers2%12.6%6%3.7%6.1%
Rockets3%8.5%5.5%2.8%5.0%
Raptors5%0.4%9.6%3.3%4.6%
Celtics5%1.8%5.8%1.7%3.6%
Clippers4%2%4.3%1.1%2.9%
Wizards4%1.6%2.4%0.5%2.1%
Jazz4%1.3%2.6%0.6%2.1%
Bucks<1%0.6%0.7%<0.1%0.7%
Hawks<1%0.2%0.9%<0.1%0.6%
Bulls<1%0.1%1%<0.1%0.6%
Pacers<1%0.2%0.8%<0.1%0.5%
Thunder<1%0.0%0.9%<0.1%0.5%
Grizzlies<1%0.2%0.4%<0.1%0.3%
Trail Blazers<1%0.0%0.4%<0.1%0.2%