The NBA Finals start on Thursday. The Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers will meet for the third straight year with the title on the line. Which team will win the championship? We complied simulations from four different sites to create the ultimate consensus NBA Finals projection.

The Warriors are massive favorites to win the title. With Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green, Golden State is 79.85% likely to win its second championship in three years.

Cleveland, the defending champions, has a 20.15% chance to repeat per the simulations. ESPN’s BPI gives LeBron and the Cavs just a 7% chance of knocking off the Dubs.

Golden State opened as -275 favorites to win the title. That is an implied probability of 73.3%. According to the consensus odds from the four different simulations there is value betting on the Warriors to beat the Cavaliers.


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Consensus Odds to win the NBA Championship

TeamCBSPredictionMachineNumberFireESPNConsensus
Warriors6878.280.29379.85
Cavaliers3221.819.8720.15