Conference Championship Simulation

DEN vs NE

We’re down to the final four teams in the NFL, and it happens to be the most likely four teams as the top seeds all advanced to their conference championships.  There isn’t much simulation to be done anymore. The Patriots are 57.1% likely to advance to Super Bowl 50 while the Panthers are 60.1% favorites to get past Arizona according to the simulation.

Given those parameters, here are the possible Super Bowl 50 matchups and their odds:

MatchupSim %Sim Odds
Patriots vs Panthers34.33%+191
Broncos vs Panthers25.80%+288
Patriots vs Cardinals22.76%+339
Broncos vs Cardinals17.11%+484

And here are the simulated odds to win the Super Bowl for all four teams remaining

TeamSim %Sim Odds5Dimes OddsCRIS Odds
Panthers37.6%+166+193+203
Patriots25.3%+295+200+185
Cardinals23.9%+318+438+376
Broncos13.2%+658+430+402

The Panthers are the Super Bowl favorite according to the simulation and you can get some positive expected value at both 5Dimes and CRIS with their current futures lines.  The largest discrepancy lies with the Broncos as the simulation has them winning the Super Bowl 13.2% of the time, but the implied odds of the sportsbooks give them a much better chance.

With positive expected value on both the Panthers and Cardinals, the best course of action might be to find a future that gives you the NFC vs the AFC for the Super Bowl.  According to the simulation the NFC should be a -160 favorite to win the Super Bowl with the current matchups remaining.

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