Rivalry Week didn’t disappoint. Ten top 25 teams lost and the playoff picture is still cloudy. If you were busy eating turkey and missed some of the action, here is your Week 13 betting recap.
- Underdogs went 34-24 (58.6%) ATS
- Road teams went 29-28 (50.9%) ATS
- Overs went 35-25 (58.3%)
- Betting against the public (<35% of tickets): 15-10 (60.0%) ATS
- Ranked teams getting <50% of the bets: 4-5 ATS
Biggest Money-line Upsets
Kentucky (+1726) at Louisville
— Scott Charlton (@Scott_Charlton) November 26, 2016
A Lamar Jackson fumble late in the fourth allowed Kentucky’s Austin MacGinnis to kick a 47-yard field goal that upset Louisville 41-38. Back-to-back losses have knocked the Cardinals out of the playoff conversation and a four-turnover game by Jackson puts the Heisman in doubt.
Southern Miss (+455) vs. Louisiana Tech
In his final home game at Southern Miss, @NickMullens' stat line: 29-33, 342 yds, 3 TDs, 0 INTs.
Dab away, sir. Dab away. pic.twitter.com/sH2ZFUuAtw
— Landon H🎅🏼well (@landonhowell) November 26, 2016
Senior quarterback Nick Mullens had himself a day. In addition to throwing three touchdown passes Mullens snuck one in for a fourth score. Southern Miss defeated LaTech 39-24 on Friday.
Colorado State (+336) at San Diego State
— CSU Rams Football (@CSUFootball) November 27, 2016
Nick Stevens threw four touchdowns, Izzy Matthews rushed for 104 yards and two scores and Colorado State thumped San Diego State 63-31. The upset snapped a ten game home winning streak for the Aztecs.
J.T. Barrett narrowly converted a controversial fourth-and-one in the second overtime. One play later Curtis Samuel scored a 15-yard touchdown to defeat Michigan 30-27. This was the first game to go to an extra session in the rivalries 113-game history. The Buckeyes will not play for the Big Ten title next week but could still participate in the playoff.
Trend Highlight – Road Dog, Heavily Bet Conference Game
Bettors typically undervalue road dogs. In heavily bet conference games the public will back the favorite increasing the value on the road underdog. This is exactly what unfolded in the Ohio State/Michigan game. We gave away the pick on the Wolverines in our Trend of the Week article. Jim Harbaugh might be “bitterly disappointed” after the heartbreaking loss to Ohio State but if you followed our advice you cashed your ticket.
All-time, taking the road underdog in heavily bet conference games has gone 217-145 (59.9%) ATS. This season the Pro System is 12-6 (66.7%) ATS.
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