College Football Week 10 Review

College Football Week 10 Review

One week into November, Alabama is still winning, Clemson and Michigan look impressive and Texas A&M stumbles at the worst time. Here is your College Football Week 10 betting recap.

Return of the Chalk

  • Favorites went 34-27 (55.7%) ATS
  • Road teams went 31-29 (51.6%) ATS
  • Unders went 31-30 (50.8%)
  • Betting against the public (<35% of tickets): 10-13 (43.5%) ATS
  • Ranked teams getting <50% of the bets: 3-2 ATS

Biggest Money-line Upsets

UTSA (+843) at Middle Tennessee State

Jarveon Williams ran for 108 yards and three touchdowns in Texas-San Antonio’s 45-25 win over Middle Tennessee State. The Roadrunners forced four turnovers in their upset as 19 point underdogs.

Charlotte (+698) at Southern Miss

After falling behind early 14-7, the 49ers scored 31 unanswered points to beat Southern Miss 38-27. Charlotte entered the game as 17.5 point underdogs on the road but quarterback Hasaan Klugh was able to run and pass for a pair of scores that led to the upset.

Illinois (+313) vs. Michigan State

Third string quarterback Jeff George Jr., son of NFL signal caller Jeff George, threw a game-winning touchdown pass with less than two minutes to play. Illinois shocked Michigan State 31-27 for the Illini’s first win over the Spartans since 2006.

From College Football Playoff to seven straight losses, the Michigan State season has quickly cratered. This is the programs worst start ever in Big Ten play, Michigan State will have a losing season for the first time since 2006.

Mississippi State (+298) vs. Texas A&M

Nick Fitzgerald had himself a day. The Mississippi State quarterback threw for two touchdowns and shredded the Aggies defense for 182 rushing yards and two scores including a critical run late in the fourth that put the Bulldogs up for good.

It was a stunning loss for Texas A&M which was ranked No. 4 in the first College Football Playoff rankings. The Aggies just got bounced out of the playoffs.

Alabama vs. LSU

In a battle of two of the country’s top defenses, Alabama came out on top once again. The Tide did not allow LSU to run a play inside its 30-yard line. Jalen Hurts scored the games only touchdown with a nifty 21-yard scramble early in the fourth. Bama has won 21 straight and 13 in a row against ranked opponents.

Trend Highlight – Road Dogs Heavily Bet Conference Games

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The public loves betting favorites. In games with a lot of action these square bettors can move the line. Road underdogs often provide value but this is especially true in conference games where the teams are familiar with each other.

Betting road underdogs in heavily bet conference games has gone 214-144 (59.8%) ATS, +59.7 units all-time. This system is 9-5 ATS in 2016.

There was only one game in Week 10 that matched this system: Vandy at Auburn. The Commodores were 22.5 points underdogs but they put a fright into the Tigers. Auburn survived with a 23-16 win but for bettors following this system the cover was never in doubt for Vandy.

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