The march to madness begins Friday. As teams begin their pursuit of the 2017 NCAA title, which squad should you bet to capture the college basketball championship?
To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the NCAA championship at SportsBook.ag and compare that to our projected odds they cut down the nets. For example, Duke is the favorite at +350, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Blue Devils they would need to win it all 22.2% (which is 100/(350+100)) of the time. Coach K’s crew is projected to win March Madness 21.6% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +350 odds.
Note: our simulation is based off of Joe Lunardi’s preseason Bracketology and uses the Ken Pom rating system for the simulation.
Here are a few teams with value.
Current odds: +1200, Implied Probability: 7.7%
Nova wins the tournament 14.6% of the time
The defending champions return most of the pieces of last year’s title team. Josh Hart is a candidate for Big East Player of the Year and the team is projected to be top ten in offensive and defensive efficiency. A return trip to the Final Four is in play.
North Carolina Tar Heels
Current odds: +2000, Implied Probability: 4.8%
UNC wins the tournament 7.8% of the time
The Heels were close, painfully close to winning the title last year. As much as it hurt coming up short in the championship game, cutting down the nets in 2017 would make it all worthwhile. UNC has the talent, Roy Williams is one of the nation’s best coaches (and most profitable) and March can’t get here soon enough.
Current odds: +2500, Implied Probability: 3.8%
Cavs win the tournament 6.0% of the time
Virginia has made steady progress under Tony Bennett with the next move being a Final Four appearance. The Hoos lose ACC Player of the Year Malcolm Brogdon but senior London Perrantes runs the point and Memphis transfer Austin Nichols is one of the best forwards in the country.
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Other teams with value: Louisville +3200 and Saint Marys +22500
Below is each team with at least a 1-in-100 chance of cutting down the nets.
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